Insight
Municipal bonds vs Treasuries after Trump’s win
One of the effects of Donald Trump’s election victory has been to further boost the growth of yields on Treasuries, U.S. government bonds. According to some analysts, this “rally” could bring yields on 10-year bonds to around 5 percent. It [+]
Dollar and Swiss franc, robust negative correlation between FED choices and uncertainty
The U.S. dollar (USD) and the Swiss franc (CHF) have a generally negative correlation, influenced by differences in monetary policies and the franc’s role as a safe haven currency. In general, the USD/CHF correlation intensifies negatively in periods of global [+]
US yield curve is dynamic on election eve
The US government bond yield curve is looking very “dynamic” in the hours leading up to the presidential election (tomorrow) and the FED meeting (Thursday).
Financial markets and business cycle, mixed signals from the three major asset classes
A look at one of the most famous relationships between financial markets and the business cycle. At the moment, no sign of a phase change appears clear from the charts.
S&P500, large companies by capitalization are back on top
The S&P 500 for the past few weeks has returned to being driven by the performance of the largest capitalization companies.
Gold and TIPS strength ratio. In real rates the reason for gold’s rally?
The strength ratio between gold and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) can give useful insights into inflation expectations, confidence in the ability of government bonds to hedge inflation risk, and, last but not least, real rate trends. On the first point, [+]
Discretionary consumption and consumer sentiment, recovery attempts
By analyzing the strength relationship between consumer discretionary consumption and the S&P500 index, we can see how consumer sentiment changes over time. The graphs show a recovery started since late summer 2024 and confirm the close relationship with inflation and [+]
BRICS, weak equities and dollar influence
There is a lot of talk about BRICS and their role on the world economic scenario in the near future. In the financial markets, the strength of this group of countries is not yet apparent, and the influence of the [+]
China, equities weak in the long run
The new wave of economic stimulus churned out by the government and central bank has restored visibility to China’s stock market, but the numbers in the long run say that investing elsewhere has returned more.
Bitcoin, correlation with equities rises
Cryptocurrencies’ long road to becoming part of investment portfolios also involves evaluating their correlations with other assets. With nearly 10 years of listing, let’s see how the correlation between bitcoin and equities is moving and what we can infer from [+]
Equity, European auto sector increasingly weak
The abrupt slowdown in 2024 is only part of the slow decline of the European auto sector, which has seen it gradually lose strength on the stock list over the past 10 years.
Gold and stock correlation, how has it changed in 10 years?
In the chart below we see the correlation between the S&P500 and bullion over the past 10 years. We first observe the prevalence of positive correlation from 2020 onward, but at the same time we note that the value of [+]
Luxury sector, the long crisis continues
The latest shingle came from French luxury giant Lvmh, which reported a 3 percent drop in revenues in the third quarter 2024, its first minus sign since the start of the pandemic. The luxury sector continues to experience a phase [+]
On the financial markets it is time for the first quarterly reports of 2023
In the past week, the first quarterly reports of 2023 for the US banking sector began to arrive. Rising rates are good for the profits of the big US giants. The continuation of the downward trend in US inflation, however, [+]
Signs of cooling from the U.S. labor market
In the past week the main theme for financial markets has been the U.S. labor market, with three data points hinting at a cooling of employment and for some, a risk of recession becoming more apparent. In February, job openings [+]
Awaiting labour market data, eyes on inflation
While waiting for the labour market data in the US, the markets focused on the signals coming from inflation, confirming their expectations of an end to monetary tightening now imminent. In the Eurozone, the situation remains more complex, with the [+]
Investors between inflation and banking system stability
Another week in which the themes of inflation and banking system stability remained the focus of investors’ attention. Concerns generated by Credit Suisse calmed on the announcement of the merger with UBS, but towards the end of the week new [+]
Banking sector fuels financial market volatility
The banking sector remained centre stage in the week that has just ended and everything suggests that the storyline in the financial markets will not change much in the coming days. The crisis and the rescue in extremis of Credit [+]
FED, labour market and Silicon Valley Bank shake up markets
A week of great volatility in the financial markets, which began with the statements by Fed Governor Powell on the possibility of further interest rate hikes and then continued with two ‘blows’ on Friday: on the one hand, the US [+]
Equity markets still focused on possible inflation developments
Yet another week in which equity markets focused on the possible inflation developments across and across the ocean. In the end, as far as equities were concerned, the more optimistic line prevailed, with the stock markets managing to close the [+]
