Insight

17 September 2026

European Stocks Cool Off? Here’s What Our Health Scores Say

The five major European equity indices show a health score ranging from 40.8 to 47.1, all below the neutral threshold of 50 points and in the lower end of their one-year historical distribution (data as of September 15, 2026). However, [+]

16 September 2026

Low Volatility Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

Our volatility barometer has fallen in every single trading session for more than a month, without a real pause. Since mid-August, it has declined day after day, reaching a level that over the past two years has been seen only [+]

29 August 2026

Financial Markets Weekly (August 24–28, 2026): Nvidia Lifts Tech, the Fed Tempers Enthusiasm

The week reversed the two clearest trends from the previous update: technology, which a week ago had posted the sharpest decline among the ten macro-areas, gained 7.39 health score points and moved out of the pressure zone. Oil took the [+]

22 August 2026

Financial Markets Weekly Review (August 17–21, 2026): Equities Slow, but Volatility Remains Low

The week just ended showed a two-speed market: equities lost ground across all three geographic regions, with technology leading the decline — the sharpest drop among the ten macro-areas monitored — while commodities, gold, oil, and cryptocurrencies all closed higher. [+]

6 August 2026

The two stories of emerging market bonds. What could happen if the Fed raises rates in September?

Many analysts have described July as a particularly challenging month for emerging financial markets overall: a distinctly uneven period, marked by an unprecedented swing in the Korean market — a record jump of around 18% in a single session after [+]

31 July 2026

July 2026: Equity Rotation Meets a Steeper Yield Curve

The market regime remains finely balanced between expansion and slowdown, with the three primary probabilities generated by our model remaining essentially evenly distributed. The system’s average health score ended the period virtually unchanged, yet the nearly four-percentage-point decline in the [+]

30 July 2026

U.S. government bonds under pressure and stocks in good shape: Is this a sustainable balance—or not?

A divergence is shaping the financial markets this summer of 2026. The U.S. Treasury market is showing one of the most pronounced divergences of the past fifteen years: long-term yields have reached their highest level in nineteen years, while equities [+]

25 July 2026

Semiconductors Face a Critical Test as AI Trade Comes Under Pressure

The past two months have been among the most turbulent of the year for the semiconductor sector. The sell-off began with Broadcom’s earnings report on June 3: an AI outlook that failed to impress investors wiped out more than $1.3 [+]

24 July 2026

Value Leads Sector Rotation as Energy and Real Estate Gain Ground, While Tech Momentum Slows

Value Rotation Holds as July Draws to a Close. The rotation into value has remained intact through late July 2026, and over the past week it has accelerated rather than faded. Since the end of April, the Value has gained [+]

8 July 2026

July 2026 Signal Map: Value advances, technology lags behind

July opens with the slowdown quadrant in the lead (50% probability, against 30% for expansion) — a change of state from the 55.6% expansion reading at the end of May. Beneath the surface, quality and cyclical sectors are gaining ground [+]

6 July 2026

July 2026 Outlook: Markets at the Crossroads of Monetary Policy, Earnings and Growth

The July 2026 outlook for financial markets revolves around two key themes. The first is the U.S. equity market, where the slowdown in the technology sector has triggered a rotation that, for now, does not appear to be defensive in [+]

2 July 2026

June 2026 by the Numbers: Record Highs, Weak Breadth and a Stronger Dollar

Financial market statistics and the June 2026 Health Scores point to a more uncertain environment than surface-level indicators might suggest. Only one third of the instruments under review exhibit a sufficiently strong directional trend to be classified as trending. The [+]

29 June 2026

Europe’s Equity Rally Masks Growing Divergence Across National Markets

Our assessment of European equities—represented by the Euro Stoxx 50—remains broadly constructive, with a Health Score of 61.8 and a Directional Signal of +23.6. The indication is that the market remains in recovery. Everything is internally consistent. But stopping there [+]

26 June 2026

U.S. Equities: Value Rebounds, but the Rotation Isn’t Defensive – Yet

Over the past 90 days, the growth and value segments of the U.S. equity market have delivered almost identical returns: +13.6% for growth and +13.7% for value. Judging solely by this comparison, one might conclude that nothing meaningful has happened [+]

25 June 2026

U.S. Small Caps Gain Momentum as Bond Correlation Weakens

Over the past 60 days, the Russell 2000 has gained 6.6%, while the Russell 3000—which also includes large- and mid-cap stocks—has advanced only 2.8%. A gap of nearly four percentage points in just two months is a clear sign that [+]

23 June 2026

Why the Dollar Is Surging and What to Expect in the Weeks Ahead

From the lows reached in late September 2025 to today, the U.S. Dollar Index has gained approximately 5.6%, climbing back above the 100 level and returning to territory it had not visited for more than a year. In absolute terms, [+]

22 June 2026

U.S. Intermarket Signals Turn More Constructive, Though Consumers Remain Defensive

The analysis of several intermarket ratios allows us to take a snapshot of confidence within the U.S. private sector. The picture that emerges is one still characterized by caution, but with encouraging signals coming from small caps and industrial metals.

19 June 2026

Gold Miners Are Sending a Different Signal Than Gold

Until a few months ago, gold was the story of the year. The metal had rallied throughout most of 2025, supported by a rare combination of forces: central banks around the world purchasing record amounts of gold, a weakening U.S. [+]

18 June 2026

Tech Rally Is a Mega-Cap Story

Since late March, the U.S. technology sector has been the dominant story in the markets. The Nasdaq 100 has rebounded by more than 16% in fewer than 30 trading sessions, pulling the S&P 500 higher and fueling a powerful narrative: [+]

4 June 2026

Historical Comparison Shows Split May, Weak Seasonal Bias for June

In this analysis, we review the performance of the monitored assets and examine what historical data may suggest about the potential market behavior for June 2026.