Insight
Crypto as Hedge: The March 2026 Anomaly Worth Understanding
March 2026 was a difficult month for portfolios: the S&P 500 fell by 5.2%, European markets lost between 5% and 8%, and gold—traditionally considered a safe haven—surprised everyone with a 12% drop. In this environment, Bitcoin closed the month unchanged [+]
Financial Markets: April 2026 Outlook
After a month of March marked by a rapid shift in equity market conditions, April emerges as a crucial month given the many unresolved issues: the war in Iran, inflation, growth prospects, earnings season, and 2026 guidance. In our April [+]
Equities: Why the Tech Sector Remains Under Pressure?
The U.S. technology sector closed the first quarter of 2026 in a condition that our indicators define as structural weakness. The KBMeter Health Score of XLK — the ETF that tracks the Technology segment of the S&P 500 — stands [+]
March 2026 Stats Reveal a Shockwave Across Financial Markets
We are back with our regular monthly review of KB Meter’s indicator statistics. In March 2026, the picture that emerges across financial markets resembles an earthquake, striking for both the speed of deterioration and the breakdown of traditional correlations.
Energy Crisis Clouds Growth Outlook; High Yield Spreads Emerge as Key Risk Gauge
Financial markets are reacting to the energy crisis on multiple fronts, but the assessment of the negative effects on the global economy still appears relatively cautious. The divergence between the energy sector and high-yield bond prices is among the most [+]
Deep Dive: current situation and outlook for long-term US Treasuries
As we also saw in yesterday’s analysis, the performance of long-term government bonds is certainly one of the most closely watched elements by investors. In today’s deep dive, we focus on U.S. Treasuries and analyze the current situation and possible [+]
Inflation or Demand Destruction? Three Intermarket Signals Revealing How Investors Are Pricing the Middle East Crisis
Investors, analysts, and market observers continue to closely monitor developments in the Middle East. One of the few certainties emerging is that even if the military conflict were to end quickly—which we all clearly hope for—the consequences for the global [+]
Equities and Oil: An Unstable, Regime-Dependent Relationship
Oil remains a key protagonist in financial markets, but what is its relationship with equities? And does it influence European equities more than U.S. equities? To answer these questions, we analyzed the evolution of correlation and beta between these assets [+]
Stocks and Bonds: The 200-Day Moving Average Divide
Over the ten years between March 2016 and March 2026, the S&P 500—represented by the SPY ETF—spent only 15.6% of the time below its 200-day moving average by more than 1%: 394 trading sessions out of 2,520. For the remaining [+]
VIX Holds Above 20 for Two Weeks: What It Means for U.S. Stocks
The VIX, i.e. the volatility index of the U.S. equity market—what commentators call the “fear gauge”—has been above the 20 level since the end of February. Initially driven by uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariffs, it was then fundamentally reshaped [+]
Oil and 30-Year Treasuries: Why Their Correlation Matters for Global Markets
Over the past 90 days, the correlation between WTI crude oil and the US 30-year Treasury yield has gone through three completely different regimes: independence, negative correlation, and positive correlation. The transition from one regime to another clearly illustrates how [+]
Chinese Equities Hold Up Better Than U.S. Markets Amid Middle East Crisis
Intermarket analysis shows that Chinese equities have managed to withstand the shock of the Middle East crisis better than U.S. equities. This is not a coincidence—behind the numbers in the relative strength ratio lie structural changes that have developed over [+]
Cross-Asset Correlations Shift Sharply After Turbulent Weeks
Cross-asset correlation analysis reveals significant shifts, albeit still within a short-term context. Nevertheless, when historically stable correlations reverse within just a few weeks, the message is fairly clear: we are operating in an exceptional market regime that demands an extra [+]
Intermarket View on U.S. Consumer Confidence: Uncertainty Remains in March 2026
Intermarket analysis of U.S. consumer confidence at the beginning of March 2026 indicates a climate that remains uncertain, although there are some signs of improvement. The relative strength ratio between discretionary and defensive consumption remains below its long-term moving average.
US Sector Rotation: Investors Shift Toward Defensives, Cyclicals Lose Momentum
The Iranian crisis is leaving clear marks on the sectoral structure of the S&P 500. Sector rotation analysis — based on data as of March 7, 2026 — shows a market that is still formally in an expansion phase, but [+]
Gold, Oil and US equities: a comparison
At a time when the Iranian crisis dominates headlines and investors are seeking safe havens, we compared three assets representing distinct positioning strategies: gold as the quintessential defensive store of value, WTI crude oil as the most direct beneficiary of [+]
Financial Markets Outlook for March 2026
The March 2026 outlook for financial markets can only be described as complex—at least on the surface. Geopolitical tensions culminating in war in Iran, the potential inflationary spillovers, and the ongoing debate around artificial intelligence remain the dominant themes shaping [+]
European Sector Equities: Rising Dispersion Signals a Phase of Differentiation
Europe’s sector equity market appears to be showing a well-defined characteristic: the market is selecting. Sector dispersion has reached 39 points, a level that historically precedes rotation moves and signals an ongoing phase of differentiation.
Financial markets on alert (but not in panic) over the war in Iran: are they preparing for a scenario of prolonged tension?
In our regular review of the most interesting patterns detected by our scoring system, we are focusing in particular on the signals linked to the escalation of the Middle East crisis that has led to war in Iran. Precious metals [+]
Elevated Correlation Between Technology Stocks and Bitcoin: Temporary or Structural?
The correlation between the U.S. technology sector and Bitcoin has reached 0.81 over the past 30 days, placing it in the 88th percentile of the historical distribution. This is an extreme level, and the most surprising aspect is the speed [+]
