Insight
July 2026 Signal Map: Value advances, technology lags behind
July opens with the slowdown quadrant in the lead (50% probability, against 30% for expansion) — a change of state from the 55.6% expansion reading at the end of May. Beneath the surface, quality and cyclical sectors are gaining ground [+]
July 2026 Outlook: Markets at the Crossroads of Monetary Policy, Earnings and Growth
The July 2026 outlook for financial markets revolves around two key themes. The first is the U.S. equity market, where the slowdown in the technology sector has triggered a rotation that, for now, does not appear to be defensive in [+]
June 2026 by the Numbers: Record Highs, Weak Breadth and a Stronger Dollar
Financial market statistics and the June 2026 Health Scores point to a more uncertain environment than surface-level indicators might suggest. Only one third of the instruments under review exhibit a sufficiently strong directional trend to be classified as trending. The [+]
Europe’s Equity Rally Masks Growing Divergence Across National Markets
Our assessment of European equities—represented by the Euro Stoxx 50—remains broadly constructive, with a Health Score of 61.8 and a Directional Signal of +23.6. The indication is that the market remains in recovery. Everything is internally consistent. But stopping there [+]
U.S. Equities: Value Rebounds, but the Rotation Isn’t Defensive – Yet
Over the past 90 days, the growth and value segments of the U.S. equity market have delivered almost identical returns: +13.6% for growth and +13.7% for value. Judging solely by this comparison, one might conclude that nothing meaningful has happened [+]
U.S. Small Caps Gain Momentum as Bond Correlation Weakens
Over the past 60 days, the Russell 2000 has gained 6.6%, while the Russell 3000—which also includes large- and mid-cap stocks—has advanced only 2.8%. A gap of nearly four percentage points in just two months is a clear sign that [+]
Why the Dollar Is Surging and What to Expect in the Weeks Ahead
From the lows reached in late September 2025 to today, the U.S. Dollar Index has gained approximately 5.6%, climbing back above the 100 level and returning to territory it had not visited for more than a year. In absolute terms, [+]
U.S. Intermarket Signals Turn More Constructive, Though Consumers Remain Defensive
The analysis of several intermarket ratios allows us to take a snapshot of confidence within the U.S. private sector. The picture that emerges is one still characterized by caution, but with encouraging signals coming from small caps and industrial metals.
Gold Miners Are Sending a Different Signal Than Gold
Until a few months ago, gold was the story of the year. The metal had rallied throughout most of 2025, supported by a rare combination of forces: central banks around the world purchasing record amounts of gold, a weakening U.S. [+]
Tech Rally Is a Mega-Cap Story
Since late March, the U.S. technology sector has been the dominant story in the markets. The Nasdaq 100 has rebounded by more than 16% in fewer than 30 trading sessions, pulling the S&P 500 higher and fueling a powerful narrative: [+]
Historical Comparison Shows Split May, Weak Seasonal Bias for June
In this analysis, we review the performance of the monitored assets and examine what historical data may suggest about the potential market behavior for June 2026.
June 2026 Market Outlook: Geopolitics vs. Technology Euphoria
Financial markets are evolving into an increasingly compelling environment. Within a backdrop that remains firmly risk-on, two dominant themes are competing for investors’ attention: on one side, the international geopolitical crisis and its implications for inflation and growth expectations; on [+]
May 2026: Equities at highs, crypto and precious metals under pressure, bonds lead recovery
May 2026 was the month in which the Dow Jones reached a new all-time high and the S&P 500 completed eight consecutive weeks of gains — a streak not seen since 2023. Yet beneath the surface, market breadth continued to [+]
Is the Commodities Rally Showing Its First Signs of Fatigue?
The DBC — the leading ETF tracking a diversified basket of commodities — reached its highest level in the past five years in recent days, posting a 29% gain over the last three months. The rally has been driven primarily [+]
After the 2025 Surge, Platinum and Palladium Come Back Down to Earth: What’s Behind the Collapse
For platinum and palladium, 2025 was an extraordinary year. Platinum had gained roughly 90% since the second quarter, while palladium was up more than 80%. Prices had returned to levels not seen in years, driven by a combination of supply [+]
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Signal Strengthens in may 2026 as Discretionary Spending Regains Leadership
The intermarket analysis of U.S. consumer confidence shows an interesting development in May 2026 compared to the signal observed in April. The ratio between discretionary and defensive consumer sectors (ETFs XLY and XLP) has remained above its long-term moving average [+]
Asset Allocation: May 2026 Investment Ideas
The May Outlook identifies a risk-on regime with persistent inflation and no near-term room for monetary easing: a context in which growth holds but the cost of money does not come down. The common thread running through this month’s tactical [+]
Financial Markets May Outlook 2026: Equities Hold Up as Bonds Come Under Pressure
We have reached our usual monthly outlook on financial markets, and May 2026 presents itself as a month in which the themes of economic growth and inflation expectations will shape the performance of equities and fixed income. For now, the [+]
April 2026 Data Show Calmer Markets, but Anxiety Still Runs Deep
April 2026 is coming to a close, and as usual we are reviewing the key statistics on financial market performance and our Health Scores. The picture that emerges is one of investors somewhat calmer than in March, but with concerns [+]
May Seasonality: What the Statistics Are Signaling
May has traditionally been the month that divides market participants between those quick to invoke the old saying “sell in May and go away” and those who dismiss it as mere calendar folklore. Our seasonality analysis for May, covering more [+]
