Insight
November Seasonality: Historical Data Point to a Favourable Month for Cyclical Stocks
October is drawing to a close with typically defensive signals, but the past 10 years of market history suggest that November tends to favour cyclical stocks. Let’s take a closer look at what the statistics tell us about the penultimate [+]
Brazil’s Election Exposes Diverging Paths Across Latin American Equity Markets
The outcome of Brazil’s election does not appear to have been particularly well received by financial markets, but the situation remains fragile in Mexico and Argentina as well. Let’s look at what our health scores tell us about the main [+]
U.S. Stocks: Dow Outperforms on Lower Tech, Higher Financials Exposure
The Dow Jones is currently the only major U.S. equity index above the neutral threshold of 50 points, with a health score of 64.0. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 3000, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are all in the 43.7–49.2 range. [+]
Precious Metals Show Signs of Improvement Only in Gold
The rise in yields we have witnessed over the past few weeks has also taken its toll on precious metals. Let’s take a look at what the health scores tell us about gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
October Signals: Bonds Seek a Bottom as Technology Gives Way to Defensives
Bond markets are attempting to form a bottom, technology is giving way to defensive sectors, and energy is split between a strengthening natural gas market and an uncertain oil outlook. Let’s look at the most interesting signals emerging from our [+]
U.S. Corporate Bonds: Yields Rise, Spreads Hold Steady
U.S. corporate bonds lost approximately 3.5% between September 8 and October 5, while credit risk pricing changed little. The main driver was the rise in government bond yields, which affected investment-grade corporate bonds and 7–10-year Treasuries to a similar extent. [+]
Rates Drive Intermarket Signals as U.S. Private-Sector Confidence Remains Weak
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.31% on October 5, its highest level of the year, while August inflation stands at 3.4% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, the three ratios we use to measure private-sector confidence have responded consistently: consumer spending [+]
October 2026 Market Scenarios: Technology Leads as Yields Drive the Outlook
The markets are entering October with technology almost single-handedly driving performance, weak bonds and a calendar that concentrates key decisions in the final week of the month. Three variables will determine how the month unfolds: energy prices, central bank decisions [+]
Bonds Head Into a Historically Difficult October
September 2026 saw the 10-year Treasury yield rise from 4.76% to 5.26%, an increase of 10.45% in a single month. In October, the same yield has risen in 9 out of the past 10 years, with an average increase of [+]
Rising Yields, Stronger Dollar, Retreating Gold: Bonds Take Center Stage in September
September saw a deterioration across almost all of the system’s indicators. The average health score, which summarizes the technical health of each asset on a scale from 0 to 100, fell from 52.7 to 47.0. Of the 132 assets analyzed, [+]
Biofuels and Fertilizers: Why Agriculture and Energy Move Together Only at Times
Oil prices around $100 and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have brought renewed attention to a link that seems obvious. If energy becomes more expensive, producing food also costs more. The data, however, tell a more nuanced story. [+]
US Stocks Near Record Highs, but Sector Data Point to More Fragility Than Meets the Eye
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are trading close to their highest price level in 5 years. Our scoring system, however, shows a market that is more fragile than prices suggest. Only 2 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors [+]
European Stocks Cool Off? Here’s What Our Health Scores Say
The five major European equity indices show a health score ranging from 40.8 to 47.1, all below the neutral threshold of 50 points and in the lower end of their one-year historical distribution (data as of September 15, 2026). However, [+]
Low Volatility Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story
Our volatility barometer has fallen in every single trading session for more than a month, without a real pause. Since mid-August, it has declined day after day, reaching a level that over the past two years has been seen only [+]
Financial Markets Weekly (August 24–28, 2026): Nvidia Lifts Tech, the Fed Tempers Enthusiasm
The week reversed the two clearest trends from the previous update: technology, which a week ago had posted the sharpest decline among the ten macro-areas, gained 7.39 health score points and moved out of the pressure zone. Oil took the [+]
Financial Markets Weekly Review (August 17–21, 2026): Equities Slow, but Volatility Remains Low
The week just ended showed a two-speed market: equities lost ground across all three geographic regions, with technology leading the decline — the sharpest drop among the ten macro-areas monitored — while commodities, gold, oil, and cryptocurrencies all closed higher. [+]
The two stories of emerging market bonds. What could happen if the Fed raises rates in September?
Many analysts have described July as a particularly challenging month for emerging financial markets overall: a distinctly uneven period, marked by an unprecedented swing in the Korean market — a record jump of around 18% in a single session after [+]
July 2026: Equity Rotation Meets a Steeper Yield Curve
The market regime remains finely balanced between expansion and slowdown, with the three primary probabilities generated by our model remaining essentially evenly distributed. The system’s average health score ended the period virtually unchanged, yet the nearly four-percentage-point decline in the [+]
U.S. government bonds under pressure and stocks in good shape: Is this a sustainable balance—or not?
A divergence is shaping the financial markets this summer of 2026. The U.S. Treasury market is showing one of the most pronounced divergences of the past fifteen years: long-term yields have reached their highest level in nineteen years, while equities [+]
Semiconductors Face a Critical Test as AI Trade Comes Under Pressure
The past two months have been among the most turbulent of the year for the semiconductor sector. The sell-off began with Broadcom’s earnings report on June 3: an AI outlook that failed to impress investors wiped out more than $1.3 [+]