April 2026 Correlations: Bonds Lose Their Hedge, Energy Moves to Its Own Beat
There are times when markets stop behaving as expected. What we are experiencing in these weeks clearly falls into that category. The April 2026 analysis of correlations among the assets monitored by KbMeter has identified two interesting structural changes, both confirmed with very high statistical confidence.
The first change concerns bonds. For decades, investors building a mixed stock-bond portfolio relied on a simple principle: when equities fall, bonds rise (or at least hold steady). This was the reason the classic 60/40 portfolio worked—and why many risk management tools rely on U.S. Treasuries as a buffer. That logic is no longer working today, at least temporarily.
The correlation between the S&P 500 and 7–10 year Treasuries (IEF) has shifted from -0.13 to +0.58 over just a few months—a change of nearly 0.7 points, also confirmed by our independent calculation on raw data.
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KBMeter data as of April 21, 2026 · 30-day correlations, returns-based methodology · Analysis for informational purposes only, not financial advice
