Asset Allocation: April 2026 Investment Ideas
In the April 2026 outlook, we highlighted how the central question markets are asking is the degree of transience of the ongoing energy shock. In our asset allocation ideas for April 2026, we attempt to translate the possible answers into tactical positioning.
The clearest signal emerging from our analysis is the need to adopt a defensive approach. This translates into three main indications: reducing exposure to assets most affected by technical deterioration (US equities, corporate bonds), strengthening defensive positions where the signal is positive (cash), and maintaining long-term exposure to asset classes with intact technical structures despite negative short-term momentum (precious metals). Deviations from long-term asset allocation remain limited. In a high-uncertainty regime, the analysis prioritizes tactical stability over large-scale repositioning.
The Three Strategies
Our monthly asset allocation analysis begins with the definition of three hypothetical investment profiles used as benchmarks:
Capital Preservation — Capital Protection
Profile with a 3–5 year horizon and low volatility tolerance. The objective is to preserve capital in real terms and outperform inflation with limited volatility, targeting CPI +1.0–1.5% in real terms. The portfolio is predominantly fixed income with intentionally short duration (max 5 years), structurally high cash allocation, and no exposure to high yield, crypto, or growth equities. The reference benchmark is inflation +1.5% per year.
Balanced Growth — Balanced Growth
Profile with a 7–10 year horizon. The objective is long-term capital growth with moderate volatility, targeting a real return between 3.5% and 5%. The portfolio balances equities and bonds with a deliberate value tilt: US equities are underweighted relative to market weight in favor of developed international and emerging markets, due to more attractive relative valuations. The reference benchmark is a composite of MSCI World 60% / Bloomberg Global Aggregate 40%.
Dynamic Risk Premium — Dynamic Risk Premium
Profile with a 10+ year horizon and high volatility tolerance. The objective is to capture risk premia across cycles, targeting a long-term real return of 6–7%. The portfolio is predominantly equity, with exposure to commodities and crypto as additional return drivers. Government bonds serve exclusively as diversification in acute stress scenarios. The reference benchmark is the MSCI ACWI index.
KBMeter macro allocation April 2026 – Equities, Bonds, Other across the three strategies
Monthly Changes Cash → increase in Capital Preservation (+4.4 pp vs previous month)The only asset class with a positive signal in the system.
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For informational purposes only. This does not constitute financial advice under MiFID II Directive (2014/65/EU). The weights shown are the result of proprietary analysis and AI algorithms and do not represent personalized investment recommendations. Before making any investment decisions, consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
KBMeter.com — April 2026.
