Insight
A weak dollar gives wings to emerging-market government bonds
2025 is shaping up to be a weak year for the US dollar, and this is also affecting the bond market—particularly the performance of government bonds from emerging markets. Let’s take a closer look at the relationship between these two [+]
IBEX 35 Holds Its Ground Against the DAX, but a Breakthrough Looks Challenging
Among the main European financial markets, only one seems able to keep pace with Frankfurt: Madrid. The Ibex 35 index has posted a year-to-date gain of over 21%, though that may not be enough to challenge the DAX’s dominance in [+]
U.S. Small Caps: Premature to Signal a Reversal
Monitoring the performance of small caps relative to large caps can provide important insights into market expectations regarding economic growth and interest rate trends. The analysis of the relative strength ratio indicates a weakening of the downward trend, but it [+]
More Weakness Ahead for the Dollar in H2 2025?
The first half of 2025 for the U.S. dollar was marked by high volatility, culminating in a significant decline during the early months of the year. On one hand, growing concerns over public finances and, on the other, the new [+]
Hang Seng Outperforms in Asia, but Investors Remain Cautious
The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a particularly positive phase, with the Hang Seng Index revisiting its highest levels since 2022 and posting the best year-to-date performance among Asian stock exchanges. Expansionary policies and a renewed appetite for technology [+]
USD Corporate Bonds Rebound Against Euro Counterparts in July
After a strong start to the year for euro-denominated corporate bonds, the trend appears to have reversed in recent weeks. However, European investors must take the exchange rate effect into account.
Turkey Trails Emerging Markets, but Investor Appetite Is Growing
Turkish equities continue to lag behind the broader emerging markets sector, but there are signs—at least in terms of investor interest—that something may be starting to shift.
Tech Tops S&P 500 Sector Performance in June
While the S&P 500 has fully recovered from the early April sell-off and continues to reach new all-time highs, let’s take a look at how its sectors are performing. In June, Technology and Communication Services led the way, while Healthcare [+]
U.S. Consumer Confidence Edges Up in June, Intermarket Signals Show Mild Improvement
As we do each month, we assess U.S. consumer confidence by analyzing a few intermarket ratios.The current takeaway is a slight improvement in sentiment.
7–10 Year Treasuries Beat the S&P 500 in H1 2025 — But the Trend May Be Turning
In the first half of 2025, U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 7–10 years outperformed the S&P 500.This is a typical occurrence in times of uncertainty, but it doesn’t appear likely to last—at least in the short term.
Wall Street’s Magnificent Seven Are Back in the Spotlight
Among the sectors that have contributed to the rebound of U.S. equities after the sharp drop in early April, the technology sector stands out without a doubt. The stars of the sector—the so-called Magnificent Seven—have recently begun to shine again.
Equity Markets: U.S. Regains Momentum Over Europe
There appears to be a new shift on the horizon between U.S. and European equities. After a period of strength for the stock markets of the Old Continent, Wall Street now seems to be gaining more momentum.
Government and Corporate Bonds: Is the Sentiment Signal Changing?
The comparison between government and corporate bonds is a powerful tool for understanding what’s happening in the markets from an intermarket perspective—that is, by observing the relationships between different asset classes. In particular, this ratio offers valuable insight into investor [+]
Global ex-US Equities Outperform the S&P 500 in 2025
2025 is proving to be a year of change when it comes to the geographical distribution of equity market performance. After years of dominance by U.S. stock markets, the bulk of gains is now being realized elsewhere. Let’s take a [+]
Correlation Between Global Equity and Bond Markets: Between Volatility and a Return to Negative Territory
In recent years, the correlation between global equity and global bond markets has shown considerable variability. After a period of very low or even negative correlation in the first half of 2023, a marked increase in correlation was observed in [+]
What Is the Sentiment on the U.S. Economy? Three Intermarket Indicators
What is the current sentiment toward the state of the U.S. economy? And are the recent moves in the stock market driven by improving economic expectations, or are they merely signs of “complacency”? These are some of the questions investors [+]
Gold/Copper Ratio: Signals Still Point to Caution
The gold-to-copper ratio is a widely used tool for interpreting macroeconomic sentiment and anticipating potential market turning points. Let’s take a look at the situation as of early June.
Equities, U.S. sectors: strong rebound in May for tech and consumer discretionary
In May, U.S. equities resumed their upward trend, supported by easing trade tensions and still-positive macroeconomic data. Among sectors, technology and consumer discretionary stocks stood out.
Stock markets big recovery: excessive optimism?
The stock markets have essentially completed their recovery from the slide at the beginning of April. But there are those who see excessive optimism in this very rapid rebound.
The gap between Eurozone and US government bonds is still widening
The performance of government bonds is being affected by the latest moves by central banks and the economic and financial outlook for the Eurozone and the US. Let’s take a look at the situation for 7–10-year maturities.
