Financial Markets Weekly (August 24–28, 2026): Nvidia Lifts Tech, the Fed Tempers Enthusiasm
The week reversed the two clearest trends from the previous update: technology, which a week ago had posted the sharpest decline among the ten macro-areas, gained 7.39 health score points and moved out of the pressure zone. Oil took the opposite path, losing 7.47 points after being among the healthiest areas last week. The market regime remains expansionary, but its probability has fallen from 54.5% to 50%, while the probability of overheating has increased. On the intermarket front, the picture remains unchanged: five of the six ratios remain close to their period extremes.
Triggers
Technology gained 7.39 health score points over the past week — the strongest recovery among the ten macro-areas monitored — moving from a pressured area back into neutral territory. Oil, by contrast, lost 7.47 points, the sharpest decline of the week, although it remains in slightly positive territory. The two areas effectively swapped places compared with seven days ago, when technology had led the decline and oil the recovery.
Data
Weekly change across macro-areas
| Area | Health norm 21/08 | Health norm 28/08 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Equities | 50.72 | 51.81 | +1.09 |
| European Equities | 53.78 | 54.29 | +0.51 |
| Asian Equities | 53.35 | 52.37 | −0.98 |
| Commodities | 55.35 | 54.64 | −0.71 |
| Bonds | 48.28 | 51.07 | +2.79 |
| Dollar Index | 42.06 | 41.60 | −0.46 |
| Technology | 43.93 | 51.32 | +7.39 |
| Gold | 57.25 | 60.76 | +3.51 |
| Oil | 63.72 | 56.25 | −7.47 |
| Cryptocurrencies | 56.01 | 56.74 | +0.73 |
Six of the ten areas ended the week in neutral territory according to our reading bands — US equities, European equities, Asian equities, commodities, bonds and technology all fall between 51 and 55 points. This is broad compression rather than a convergence of signals: only gold, oil and cryptocurrencies remain slightly positive, while the Dollar Index remains the only area under pressure. Bonds continued the recovery seen in previous weeks (+2.79), while the dollar continued to weaken, albeit at a slower pace than seven days ago.
The main movers of the week
Among individual assets, the strongest recovery came from Brazilian equities, which rose from 32.78 to 50.11 (+17.33), returning to neutral territory after weeks under pressure.
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