Risk-On Mood Dominates Markets as Bonds Attempt Rebound, Cryptocurrencies Struggle
Financial markets remain optimistic about the outcome of the negotiations between the US and Iran, although the latest news from the front has revived oil prices and cast some doubt on the timing of the agreement. The most visible effects are being seen in the bond market, which is attempting to recover ground ahead of Thursday’s crucial US PCE inflation data release. Commodities are generally losing momentum, while the situation for cryptocurrencies remains critical. Market sentiment remains risk-on, and volatility is within normal levels. Futures indicate a positive opening for both Europe and the United States.
Market Weather Map
May 26, 2026
US Equities
Eu Equities
Asia Equities
Commodities
Bonds
Dollar Index
Technology
Gold
Oil
Crypto
Market Summary
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Financial markets sentiment
Financial markets are showing a moderately positive sentiment today. With Wall Street and London closed yesterday, many indicators on our intermarket dashboards were not updated. It is worth noting, however, that the global bond market continued its recovery, moving above the fast moving average and continuing its “chase” toward the medium-term moving average. This could represent an interesting signal regarding inflation expectations.
Our market weather map highlights the slight recovery in bonds and the growth of European equities, while the situation remains critical for cryptocurrencies. It is also worth noting that all the commodities under observation have a health score below 50 points.
Global Futures – Pre-Market Sentiment
Pre-Market Futures: Global futures are signaling a risk-on sentiment (average +0.54%), with the US positive (+0.81%), Europe slightly positive (+0.44%), and Asia slightly positive (+0.48%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Market Sentiment
- IBEX 35 derived: +2.40%
- FTSE MIB derived: +1.43%
- CSI 300: +1.19%
- Nikkei 225 derived: -0.71%
- DAX derived: -0.32%
- Mini DAX: -0.31%
Intermarket details
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-05-26 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 5.0/100 SENTIMENT: BEARISH ============================================================ SUMMARY OF MAIN RATIOS ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Flight to safe havens Gold/USD: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Declining energy demand SP500/VIX: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Slowdown expectations SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market is in bearish territory. Widespread stress signals are emerging. Risk-off sentiment is underway. Maximum caution is advised. Positioning: HIGHLY DEFENSIVE, capital preservation focus. STRONGEST RATIOS: • DJ/Gold: 5.0/100 • Gold/USD: 5.0/100 • Oil/Gold: 5.0/100 WEAKEST RATIOS: • SP500/VIX: 5.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 5.0/100 • SP500/Nasdaq: 5.0/100 ============================================================ Data processed by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-05-26
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-05-26
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MARKET REGIME: RISK-ON
REGIME SCORE: 90.0/100
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TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
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GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short-Term Trend (5d): +1.06% | ABOVE EMA 10
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +3.64% | ABOVE EMA 50
Long-Term Trend (60d): +5.84% | ABOVE EMA 200
5d Volatility: 11.6%
20d Volatility: 14.6%
60d Volatility: 18.0%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +1.50% | ABOVE EMA 50
20d Volatility: 23.0%
ACWI/BND Correlation (30d): 0.878
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market is in a risk-on regime. Equities are showing positive trends across multiple
time horizons, while volatility remains contained. Investors are favoring risk assets.
Suggested positioning: OVERWEIGHT equities.
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ASSET RANKING - WHO IS PERFORMING BEST?
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🥇 1. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 100/100
Price: $155.99
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +1.06% | 20d +3.64% | 60d +5.84%
Volatility: 5d 11.6% | 20d 14.6% | 60d 18.0%
Drawdown: -0.42%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 76/100
Price: $30.54
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -2.68% | 20d +1.50% | 60d +21.67%
Volatility: 5d 19.4% | 20d 23.0% | 60d 25.0%
Drawdown: -3.63%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥉 3. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 64/100
Price: $73.00
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +0.43% | 20d -0.68% | 60d -1.94%
Volatility: 5d 5.1% | 20d 4.6% | 60d 4.6%
Drawdown: -1.94%
→ Asset in FAIR condition: predominantly positive signals
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CORRELATION ANALYSIS - CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
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ACWI/BND:
Current Correlation (30d): +0.878
Historical Average (1 year): +0.246
Deviation: +0.632
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
→ Positive correlation: diversification COMPROMISED
BND/DBC:
Current Correlation (30d): -0.724
Historical Average (1 year): -0.296
Deviation: -0.428
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
ACWI/DBC:
Current Correlation (30d): -0.606
Historical Average (1 year): -0.044
Deviation: -0.563
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
→ Negative correlation: possible supply-driven shift
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OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
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STRONGEST ASSET: Global Equities (Score: 100/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Global Bonds (Score: 64/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Favor the strongest asset and maintain risk exposure.
DIVERSIFICATION: WEAK - Asset classes tend to move together.
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Data processed by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-05-26
Macroeconomic calendar
On the macroeconomic front, the day is expected to offer only limited catalysts. Key items to monitor include the performance of the Italian inflation-linked BTP auction (BTPi), the April 2026 CFNAI update, the US Conference Board consumer confidence reading for May, and US housing price trends for March 2026.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 26 May 2026 - 7:35 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
