Investors Turn to Long-Term Bonds as Inflation, Deficits and Stagflation Fears Loom
Financial markets remain in a state of tension, with oil prices staying elevated and inflation threats—becoming increasingly concrete—beginning to reshape investors’ expectations regarding the monetary policy of major central banks.
Analysts are closely monitoring the relationship between oil prices and long-term government bond yields. A divergence between the two could signal that markets are beginning to price in an uncomfortable scenario: stagflation.
Market sentiment remains between neutral and moderately negative, with elevated volatility. Futures point to a weak opening for Europe and a slightly positive one for the United States.
Market Weather Map
March 13, 2026
US Equities
Eu Equities
Asia Equities
Commodities
Bonds
Dollar Index
Technology
Gold
Oil
Crypto
Market Summary
Financial markets today show a neutral to moderately negative sentiment. Intermarket analysis highlights a Market Health Score of 5/100, indicating a negative environment. There are few new developments on the intermarket dashboard. Our focus remains on the relationship between commodities and 30-year U.S. Treasuries. The indicator continues to trend higher, reflecting rising inflation expectations.
As noted by many analysts, if the strength ratio were to weaken while oil prices remain strong, this would suggest that investors are starting to price in concerns about economic growth. For the rest, the situation largely mirrors what we observed yesterday. On the asset class front, it is worth noting that both global equities and global bonds have lost the support of their 50-day moving average and are approaching another important support area.
The situation remains delicate, and the potential trigger could be a shift in expectations—from a high-inflation-with-growth scenario to a stagflation scenario. The correlation between bond prices and commodity prices has fallen to yearly lows.
Pre-Market Futures: Global futures indicate a moderate risk-off sentiment (average -0.07%), with the U.S. slightly positive (+0.29%), Europe slightly negative (-0.24%), and Asia marginally negative (-0.02%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Opening Sentiment
- Russell 2000: +0.51%
- CAC 40 derived: +0.32%
- Dow Jones: +0.32%
- IBEX 35 derived: -1.44%
- TecDAX derived: -1.11%
- FTSE MIB derived: -0.73%
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-03-13 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 5.0/100 SENTIMENT: BEARISH ============================================================ SUMMARY OF MAIN RELATIONSHIPS ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Flight toward safe havens Gold/USD: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Declining energy demand SP500/VIX: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Expectations of slowdown SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market is in bearish territory. Signs of widespread stress. A flight from risk is underway. Maximum caution is advised. Positioning: VERY DEFENSIVE, capital preservation. STRONGEST RELATIONSHIPS: • DJ/Gold: 5.0/100 • Gold/USD: 5.0/100 • Oil/Gold: 5.0/100 WEAKEST RELATIONSHIPS: • SP500/VIX: 5.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 5.0/100 • SP500/Nasdaq: 5.0/100 ============================================================ Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-03-13
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-03-13
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MARKET REGIME: RISK-OFF
REGIME SCORE: 15.0/100
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TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
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GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short-Term Trend (5d): -0.87% | BELOW EMA 10
Medium-Term Trend (20d): -3.57% | BELOW EMA 50
Long-Term Trend (60d): -0.08% | ABOVE EMA 200
Volatility 5d: 16.8%
Volatility 20d: 14.5%
Volatility 60d: 12.7%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +21.26% | ABOVE EMA 50
Volatility 20d: 23.8%
ACWI/BND Correlation (30d): 0.012
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market is in a risk-off regime. Negative trends across multiple time horizons
and/or elevated volatility. Flight toward safe assets.
Suggested positioning: DEFENSIVE, capital protection.
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ASSET RANKING - WHO IS PERFORMING BEST?
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🥇 1. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 100/100
Price: $28.86
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +4.91% | 20d +21.26% | 60d +30.78%
Volatility: 5d 30.0% | 20d 23.8% | 60d 22.1%
Drawdown: 0.00%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 50/100
Price: $73.62
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.84% | 20d -1.09% | 60d +0.29%
Volatility: 5d 4.6% | 20d 3.9% | 60d 3.1%
Drawdown: -1.76%
→ Asset in NEUTRAL condition: mixed signals
🥉 3. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 20/100
Price: $140.45
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.87% | 20d -3.57% | 60d -0.08%
Volatility: 5d 16.8% | 20d 14.5% | 60d 12.7%
Drawdown: -5.52%
→ Asset UNDER PRESSURE: avoid or significantly underweight
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CORRELATION ANALYSIS - CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
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ACWI/BND:
Current correlation (30d): +0.012
Historical average (1 year): +0.153
Deviation: -0.141
→ Weak correlation: moderate diversification
BND/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.509
Historical average (1 year): -0.202
Deviation: -0.307
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
ACWI/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.060
Historical average (1 year): +0.126
Deviation: -0.185
→ Negative correlation: possible supply-driven shift
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OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
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STRONGEST ASSET: Commodities (Score: 100/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Global Equities (Score: 20/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Reduce exposure to the weakest asset, prioritize defensive assets.
DIVERSIFICATION: EXCELLENT - Asset classes are moving independently.
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Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-03-13
On the macroeconomic front, the day features several interesting data releases. The session begins with updates on the UK economic situation for January and Eurozone industrial production for January 2026. Later in the afternoon, markets will focus on Canada’s employment figures for February 2026 and the expected updates from the United States on personal spending, PCE inflation, durable goods orders, Michigan consumer confidence, and job openings. A revision of the U.S. GDP growth data for the final quarter of 2025 is also expected.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 13 March 2026 - 9:00 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
