Financial Markets Seek Stability Ahead of Fed Decision
Financial markets remain in a waiting phase, stabilizing compared to recent days and positioning themselves ahead of central bank decisions. Today the spotlight is on the Bank of Canada and, above all, the Fed. Expectations point to no change, but the language used by the board and the remarks from J. Powell will be closely scrutinized by investors seeking insight into the potential effects of the Middle East conflict on inflation and growth. Sentiment remains neutral, while volatility is still elevated. Futures indicate a positive opening for both Europe and the United States.
Market Weather Map
March 18, 2026
US Equities
Eu Equities
Asia Equities
Commodities
Bonds
Dollar Index
Technology
Gold
Oil
Crypto
Market Summary
Our intermarket dashboards do not show any significant changes, confirming the stabilization phase mentioned yesterday. Across asset classes, there are no new signals: both equities and bonds—whose correlation remains in positive territory and is approaching the one-year average—are still below their medium-term moving averages, yet continue to hold the support area near the lows seen since late 2025. The correlation between bonds and commodities is becoming more decisively negative, moving beyond the -0.6 threshold.
Pre-Opening Futures: Global futures indicate a risk-on sentiment (average +0.63%), with the U.S. positive (+0.67%), Europe positive (+0.65%), and Asia positive (+0.54%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Opening Sentiment
- FTSE MIB derived: +1.24%
- Nikkei 225 derived: +1.23%
- TecDAX derived: +1.00%
- CSI 300: -0.36%
- Mini MDAX derived: +0.00%
- Dow Jones: +0.48%
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-03-18 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 5.0/100 SENTIMENT: BEARISH ============================================================ MAIN RELATIONSHIPS SUMMARY ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Flight to safe havens Gold/USD: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Declining energy demand SP500/VIX: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Expectations of slowdown SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market is in bearish territory. Widespread stress signals. Risk-off dynamics underway. Maximum caution advised. Positioning: VERY DEFENSIVE, capital preservation. STRONGEST RELATIONSHIPS: • DJ/Gold: 5.0/100 • Gold/USD: 5.0/100 • Oil/Gold: 5.0/100 WEAKEST RELATIONSHIPS: • SP500/VIX: 5.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 5.0/100 • SP500/Nasdaq: 5.0/100 ============================================================ Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-03-18
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-03-18
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MARKET REGIME: MODERATE RISK-OFF
REGIME SCORE: 30.0/100
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TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
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GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short-Term Trend (5d): -0.74% | BELOW EMA 10
Medium-Term Trend (20d): -3.24% | BELOW EMA 50
Long-Term Trend (60d): +1.55% | ABOVE EMA 200
5d Volatility: 18.4%
20d Volatility: 15.1%
60d Volatility: 12.9%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +18.79% | ABOVE EMA 50
20d Volatility: 21.6%
ACWI/BND Correlation (30d): 0.122
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market shows signs of caution. Trends are deteriorating across some horizons
and/or volatility is increasing. Investors are reducing risk exposure.
Suggested positioning: UNDERWEIGHT equities, favor quality and defensive assets.
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ASSET RANKING - WHO IS PERFORMING BEST?
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🥇 1. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 100/100
Price: $28.76
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +2.24% | 20d +18.79% | 60d +31.02%
Volatility: 5d 27.1% | 20d 21.6% | 60d 22.3%
Drawdown: -0.35%
→ Asset in STRONG CONDITION: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 52/100
Price: $73.98
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +0.12% | 20d -0.78% | 60d +0.41%
Volatility: 5d 5.6% | 20d 3.7% | 60d 3.2%
Drawdown: -1.28%
→ Asset in NEUTRAL condition: mixed signals
🥉 3. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 40/100
Price: $141.88
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.74% | 20d -3.24% | 60d +1.55%
Volatility: 5d 18.4% | 20d 15.1% | 60d 12.9%
Drawdown: -4.55%
→ Asset in WEAK condition: negative trends or elevated volatility
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CORRELATION ANALYSIS - CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
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ACWI/BND:
Current Correlation (30d): +0.122
Historical Average (1 year): +0.151
Deviation: -0.029
→ Weak correlation: moderate diversification
BND/DBC:
Current Correlation (30d): -0.687
Historical Average (1 year): -0.212
Deviation: -0.475
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
ACWI/DBC:
Current Correlation (30d): -0.118
Historical Average (1 year): +0.113
Deviation: -0.232
→ Negative correlation: possible supply-driven shift
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OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
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STRONGEST ASSET: Commodities (Score: 100/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Global Equities (Score: 40/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Reduce exposure to the weakest asset, favor defensive positioning.
DIVERSIFICATION: GOOD - Diversification benefits present.
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Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-03-18
On the macro front, the day revolves around the Fed’s decision. A no-change outcome is largely expected, but it will be important to gauge the degree of unity within the board and Powell’s comments regarding the potential implications of the Middle East crisis for future U.S. monetary policy. Other noteworthy data include Japanese exports for February, the final Eurozone inflation reading for February, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, U.S. producer price data for February, and U.S. factory orders for January.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 18 March 2026 - 8:02 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.