Financial markets question US economic future
The week begins with renewed fears of a slowdown in the US economy, weakness in the Chinese economy and fresh thoughts on Europe. Investors are keeping their foot on the brake as they await new data.
As far as our intermarket dashboards are concerned, we continue to see a period of low investor risk appetite. More importantly, we are monitoring the evolution of the technical picture for the S&P500 and bonds (charts on the right). After its worst week since last September, the S&P500 continues to dance on the 200-day average, below which there is another support area around 5600. Bonds, on the other hand, have stopped their rally towards the highs of last September and are finding support at the highs of the end of 2024. Holding this level could herald another attempt to move higher. Commodities continue to trade sideways. It is also worth noting that the correlation between equities and bonds has reached zero in recent sessions.
On the macroeconomic front, the day did not bring any major drivers. Of note were German industrial production data for January and US consumer inflation expectations.
On the quarterly front, we should mention the arrival of data from Oracle, another important player in the cloud computing sector, later today.
Our forecast analysis continues to point to an intermediate situation, with only a few weak positive signals for equities. The recovery in bonds is also stalling, with US bond yields rebounding. On the commodities front, the situation is uncertain. On the currency front, there are still positive signs for the euro, pound sterling and Swiss franc. Volatility stable or rising slightly.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 10 March 2025 - 7:27 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
