Fears of a Prolonged War Rattle Financial Markets, Risk Appetite Indicators at Lows Since Last November
Fears of a prolonged war are taking over financial markets, and stock exchanges—after initially containing their reactions—are posting more pronounced losses in Tuesday’s March 3 session. Risk-off sentiment is boosting defensive assets, while developments on the ground are pushing oil prices further higher. Risk appetite indicators have returned to last November’s levels, while volatility remains elevated. Futures still point to a negative opening for both Europe and the United States.
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March 4, 2026
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Azionario Europa
Azionario Asia
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Financial markets are currently showing a neutral to moderately negative sentiment. Intermarket analysis highlights a Market Health Score of 46/100 (neutral). Our intermarket dashboards show a clear deterioration in risk appetite indicators, with the S&P 500/VIX ratio falling to its lowest levels since last November. Another important signal comes from oil, which is regaining ground against gold. The strength ratio between bullion and crude has climbed back to November’s levels and is approaching its long-term moving average.
Across asset classes, the deterioration in equities is becoming more pronounced, with the global index falling below its 50-day moving average—triggering, in this analysis as well, a risk-off alert.
Pre-Opening Futures: Global futures are signaling a risk-off sentiment (average -1.13%), with the U.S. negative (-0.96%), Europe sharply negative (-1.17%), and Asia sharply negative (-1.24%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Opening Sentiment
- CSI 300: +0.09%
- Mini MDAX derived: +0.00%
- FTSE 100 derived: -0.73%
- Nikkei 225 derived: -2.50%
- TecDAX derived: -2.02%
- FTSE MIB derived: -2.01%
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-03-04 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 45.9/100 SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL ============================================================ SUMMARY OF MAIN RATIOS ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: 9.4963 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -11.15% - 50-day ROC: -13.78% → Flight to safe haven Gold/USD: - Component score: 95.0/100 - Current value: 51.5639 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +8.88% - 50-day ROC: +16.67% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 50.0/100 - Current value: 0.0146 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +8.60% - 50-day ROC: +13.45% - ⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED - Significant deviation from the average → Rising energy demand SP500/VIX: - Component score: 0.0/100 - Current value: 289.2079 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -32.26% - 50-day ROC: -24.19% - ⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED - Significant deviation from the average → Contracting risk appetite Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 80.0/100 - Current value: 0.2897 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +6.17% - 50-day ROC: +13.81% - ⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED - Significant deviation from the average → Economic growth expectations SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 95.0/100 - Current value: 0.3027 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +2.38% - 50-day ROC: +2.21% ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market is in a neutral/sideways phase. Conflicting signals across the various ratios. There is no clear directional bias. Wait for confirmation. Positioning: BALANCED, avoid excesses. STRONGEST RATIOS: • Gold/USD: 95.0/100 • SP500/Nasdaq: 95.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 80.0/100 WEAKEST RATIOS: • Oil/Gold: 50.0/100 • DJ/Gold: 5.0/100 • SP500/VIX: 0.0/100 ============================================================ Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-03-04
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-03-04
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MARKET REGIME: MODERATE RISK-OFF
REGIME SCORE: 30.0/100
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TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
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GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short Trend (5d): -3.34% | BELOW EMA 10
Medium Trend (20d): -1.28% | BELOW EMA 50
Long Trend (60d): +2.09% | ABOVE EMA 200
Volatility 5d: 16.1%
Volatility 20d: 14.9%
Volatility 60d: 11.7%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium Trend (20d): +7.29% | ABOVE EMA 50
Volatility 20d: 21.3%
ACWI/BND Correlation (30d): -0.028
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market is showing signs of caution. Deteriorating trends across some horizons
or rising volatility. Investors are reducing risk exposure.
Suggested positioning: UNDERWEIGHT equities, favor quality and defensive assets.
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ASSET RANKING - WHO IS PERFORMING BEST?
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🥇 1. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 100/100
Price: $25.91
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +4.69% | 20d +7.29% | 60d +15.49%
Volatility: 5d 18.7% | 20d 21.3% | 60d 20.0%
Drawdown: 0.00%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 86/100
Price: $74.56
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.16% | 20d +1.16% | 60d +1.34%
Volatility: 5d 3.8% | 20d 3.3% | 60d 2.9%
Drawdown: -0.51%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥉 3. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 40/100
Price: $143.68
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -3.34% | 20d -1.28% | 60d +2.09%
Volatility: 5d 16.1% | 20d 14.9% | 60d 11.7%
Drawdown: -3.34%
→ Asset in WEAK condition: negative trends or elevated volatility
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CORRELATION ANALYSIS - CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
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ACWI/BND:
Current correlation (30d): -0.028
Historical average (1 year): +0.160
Deviation: -0.188
→ Weak correlation: moderate diversification
BND/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.328
Historical average (1 year): -0.184
Deviation: -0.144
ACWI/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): +0.166
Historical average (1 year): +0.150
Deviation: +0.017
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OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
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STRONGEST ASSET: Commodities (Score: 100/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Global Equities (Score: 40/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Reduce exposure to the weakest asset, favor defensive positions.
DIVERSIFICATION: EXCELLENT - Asset classes are moving independently.
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Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-03-04
On the macro front, today’s agenda includes PMI survey data on the Chinese economy, Australian GDP growth for the last quarter of 2025, producer prices and unemployment in the Euro area for last January, the February ADP report on the U.S. labor market (a preview of Friday’s official report), and the update of the ISM manufacturing index.
On the earnings front, results are due today—among others—from Broadcom, Adidas, and Macy’s.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 4 March 2026 - 7:41 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
