U.S. Stocks: Dow Outperforms on Lower Tech, Higher Financials Exposure
The Dow Jones is currently the only major U.S. equity index above the neutral threshold of 50 points, with a health score of 64.0. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 3000, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are all in the 43.7–49.2 range. The recovery, if that is what we want to call it, began in early October. On October 5, the Dow had the lowest score of the five indices, at 44.1. Since then, it has gained 19.9 points, while the others have lost between 10.9 and 14.5 points. However, we should be careful not to jump to easy conclusions: index composition also plays a role in these dynamics.
Current situation. Data as of October 20, 2026.
| Index | Health score | 1-month change | 1-year percentile | Trend | Momentum | Outlook | 5-day reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 64.0 | +22.1 | 85th | 66.1 | 66.8 | 82.1 | High (65%) |
| Nasdaq 100 | 49.2 | −14.2 | 39th | 59.2 | 31.4 | 59.2 | Medium (55%) |
| Russell 3000 | 46.3 | −7.8 | 19th | 53.2 | 37.9 | 46.3 | Medium (55%) |
| S&P 500 | 45.5 | −9.0 | 15th | 53.2 | 37.9 | 39.2 | High (75%) |
| Russell 2000 | 43.7 | −2.5 | 4th | 49.2 | 37.2 | 46.6 | Medium (55%) |
The Dow has the highest trend and momentum readings in the group. Its momentum, which measures the recent strength of price movements, is the only reading above 50. All four other indices are below 40.
The 5-day reliability figure indicates how often, in similar historical cases, an index remains in the same category after five days. It measures the stability of the category, not the direction of the market, and depends solely on the score’s position rather than on how the index is constructed.
The Dow is in the Strong category and remains there in 65% of cases. The S&P 500 is in the Weak category and remains there in 75% of cases. The other three indices are also in the Weak category, close to the boundary with the Intermediate category, and remain in the same category in 55% of cases.
What they have in common. On September 15 and 16, all five indices broke below their respective 20-session lows. At the beginning of September, all five had momentum readings in negative territory. In October, momentum returned to positive territory in four of the five indices, with the Russell 2000 the sole exception.
None of the five is showing signs of exhaustion.
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