Rising Yields, Stronger Dollar, Retreating Gold: Bonds Take Center Stage in September
September saw a deterioration across almost all of the system’s indicators. The average health score, which summarizes the technical health of each asset on a scale from 0 to 100, fell from 52.7 to 47.0. Of the 132 assets analyzed, none scored above 70 and 62 remained below 45. The share of assets in bullish territory fell from 40.2% to 22.7%. The share of assets trading above their 200-day moving average declined from 65.2% to 51.5%. The average RSI, which measures the strength of recent price movements, fell to 43.3 from 52.7 the previous month. There were 19 oversold assets, with an RSI below 30, compared with just two overbought assets.
The deterioration did not affect all components equally. The average trend, which describes the underlying direction of prices, fell to 53.1, down 5.5 points. Average momentum, which measures the speed of the most recent price movements, fell to 41.9, down 8.4 points. The gap between the two measures is also reflected in the directional signal, which indicates direction as well as intensity. The trend signal was positive for 54.5% of assets, while the momentum signal was negative for 68.2%. The 50-day moving average, which is more sensitive to recent price movements, was exceeded by only 31.8% of assets. The system assigns each asset to one of four regimes. At month-end, 56.8% were in the mixed regime, 16.7% in trend, 15.9% in turbulence and 10.6% in sideways conditions.
Bonds were the asset class that stood out during the month. The U.S. segment recorded an average health score of 40.3, down 8.8 points in one month.
Ninety-one percent of U.S.
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