Is the Commodities Rally Showing Its First Signs of Fatigue?
The DBC — the leading ETF tracking a diversified basket of commodities — reached its highest level in the past five years in recent days, posting a 29% gain over the last three months. The rally has been driven primarily by energy: Brent crude oil climbed above $110 per barrel, while diesel and gasoline surged by 59% and 84% respectively during the quarter. In its April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank forecasts an overall 16% increase in commodity prices this year, with energy up 24% — the second-largest shock since the war in Ukraine.
The reason behind this powerful move can be identified with precision: the conflict in the Middle East and the tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 35% of global seaborne crude shipments transit. This is a supply shock that markets have priced in rapidly and aggressively.
It is precisely this speed that deserves attention today. The technical signal emerging from our analysis is what is known as momentum exhaustion: DBC gained 29% over the quarter, but only 8% over the last month — less than one-third of the previous pace.
Oil, diesel, gasoline, and industrial metals are all showing the same structure: the trend remains intact, but the speed at which prices moved higher has visibly compressed.
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