Deep Dive: After the historic crash, a technical rebound in silver is possible. But the medium-term outlook remains uncertain — and volatility remains elevated
Silver reaches mid-February still shaken by one of the most violent events in commodity market history. The January 30 crash — with a 30% collapse in a single session, the worst since 1980 — has completely reshaped the technical picture. After approaching $120, silver now trades around $73, in what analysts describe as a post-panic “digestion phase,” between a possible technical rebound and significant volatility.
The correction was not driven by a collapse in physical demand. It was a forced deleveraging in the futures market, amplified by margin increases from the CME (from 11% to 15%) and the strength of the dollar following Kevin Warsh’s appointment to the Fed. Goldman Sachs described the dynamic as a cascade effect: “stop-loss triggered, losses cascaded through the system.” Volatility took on “meme stock” characteristics, with daily swings of 10–16%.
Short Term (2–4 weeks): Mixed Signals
The Stochastic at 2.75 has been in extreme oversold territory for 7 consecutive days — a condition that has historically preceded technical rebounds. The “RSI Oversold Recovery” pattern shows a 91.5% success rate over 71 historical occurrences, although the current RSI (50) has not yet reached the activation threshold.
However, our system signals an active bullish exhaustion (score 5.87). This may seem counterintuitive after a 37% collapse, but it indicates that the previous rally was technically “exhausted” — the crash was the consequence, not the cause. The Turbulence regime (with 4 transitions in the past 30 days) confirms instability.
Seasonality does not help: February is historically the worst month for silver, with a win rate of only 20% and an average return of -2.7%.
In summary, a technical rebound remains possible, but within a high-volatility environment. This is certainly not the time to chase.
Medium Term (1–3 months): Caution Justified
Our system calculates a Future Score (the instrument outlook) of 37, a value 9 points below the current Health (47) — a negative divergence suggesting further deterioration in technical conditions.
Momentum at 34 (with bearish orientation) is clearly in negative territory, a condition present across all time horizons (short, medium, long). The Trend Score, while still positive at 59, shows negative deltas. The Health Score at the 32nd historical percentile indicates below-average but not yet extreme conditions.
In the ranking of precious metals we monitor, silver ranks last out of four (25th category percentile), behind Gold (54), Platinum (45), and Palladium (42).
In summary, downside pressure may not be exhausted. The negative Future Score suggests that any rebounds could represent opportunities to reduce exposure rather than accumulate.
Long Term: Fundamentals Remain Intact
Peter Brandt, one of the most respected commodity analysts, emphasized that “2026 is not 2011” — silver may not need to revisit long-term lows as it did in the last cycle. The physical market remains in structural deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with industrial demand (solar, electric vehicles) continuing to grow.
JPMorgan sees gold at $6,300 by year-end, and historically silver follows with leverage. But in the short-to-medium term, as Marko Kolanovic notes, “silver behaves less like a store of value and more like a leveraged macro instrument” — and leveraged instruments correct violently.
Operational Summary
Silver presents a three-speed framework:
Short term: The oversold stochastic could generate a technical rebound, but unfavorable seasonality and the Turbulence regime suggest not anticipating it. Key support in the $67–68 area.
Medium term: Negative Future Score and deteriorating momentum indicate that the digestion phase may persist. Any rallies toward $75–80 could encounter significant resistance (former supports turned resistances).
Long term: Structural fundamentals (deficit, industrial demand) support the thesis of a secular bull market still intact. This correction may be remembered as a “shakeout” that removed speculative leverage.
Suggested approach: Strategic patience. Those looking to build long-term positions may wait for regime stabilization (exit from Turbulence) and a Future Score returning at least to neutral. Attempting to “buy the bottom” in a market with 144% annualized volatility is a high-risk exercise. More broadly, in the presence of a Turbulence regime with 144% volatility, the reliability of any technical model is significantly reduced. Signals should be interpreted with greater caution than usual.
Analysis based on the KBMeter Deep Dive System. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation.
