Cyclical Analysis: WTI Crude Oil — cycles aligned to the upside, but is the US-Iran Risk already priced in?
WTI crude oil ends February with a +15.4% rally year-to-date, nearly triple its expected seasonal performance (+6.5%). The reason is well known: tensions between the United States and Iran have brought back the scenario most feared by energy markets—a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which 20% of global oil supply transits.
Donald Trump has given Iran “10–15 days” to reach a nuclear agreement, warning that otherwise “very bad things will happen.” Strategists at Barclays believe that if conflict is imminent, it will likely be short-lived, with defined targets similar to last summer.
WTI has risen from $57 to $66–67 (+16%), pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium. According to Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital, “a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would push oil above $100.” However, analysts agree this scenario remains low probability.
Let’s examine what our cyclical analysis suggests for WTI crude oil, with bullish alignment across multiple time horizons and a contrarian signal worth noting.
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Analysis based on KBMeter Cyclical Analysis. Data as of 23/02/2026. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation.
