Insight
Saylor-Buffett Ratio Back to Dot-Com Bubble Levels in October 2025 — But Don’t Rush to Conclusions
One of the indicators often cited to assess the level of “riskiness” in the current equity rally is undoubtedly the Saylor-Buffett Ratio. We have already discussed it in our previous Insights, so let’s take a look at the updated situation…
S&P 500 Sectors: Tech Still Leads in September 2025
The usual monthly analysis of sector rotation within the S&P 500 confirms that, in September 2025, the technology sector continued to perform particularly well — but somewhat surprisingly, utilities also stood out.
Signals from U.S. High Yield and Small Caps: Fed Expectations Fall, Recession Risk Low
What can two market segments, particularly sensitive to U.S. monetary policy and economic growth, tell us? The analysis of U.S. High Yield bonds and Small Cap stocks seems to confirm a reduction in expectations for Fed rate hikes and a…
Latin American Equities Continue Their Recovery in 2025
After last spring’s slowdown, Latin American equities have continued their recovery phase that began in January 2025, driven by major markets such as Brazil and Mexico, but also by the surprising performance of Colombia.
Oil Falls, but U.S. Refineries Outperform the S&P 500
In the U.S., shares of oil refineries are outperforming the S&P 500 amid falling crude prices and potential exemptions related to renewable fuels. This represents a small market niche (accounting for 3% of the index) within a sector—energy—that remains weak.
Weak Dollar, Emerging Market Equities and Bonds Compared
The weakness of the dollar, driven in recent weeks by the Fed’s actions, has among its effects an appreciation of emerging market equities and bonds.
A new leader emerges among European markets: Spanish equities
Over the course of 2025, Spanish equities have climbed the ranks of European stock markets, eventually overtaking Germany’s DAX at the top.
Asian equities buoyed by Fed moves
Over the course of the year, and especially in the past few weeks, Asian equity markets have delivered impressive performances. The main driver behind these gains has been expectations of a substantial Fed intervention on interest rates by the end…
Gold Holds Strong Against Copper in September
Tariffs, interest rate expectations, and views on U.S. economic growth are reflected in the performance of the Gold-to-Copper ratio. The indicator remains upward-oriented, signaling a preference for the safe-haven asset and some uncertainty over the strength of industrial demand.
U.S. Equity Market Sentiment: September Update Leaves Questions Unanswered
After the summer break, and with U.S. indexes continuing to reach new highs, we take a look at sentiment toward the U.S. equity market through three intermarket indicators.
S&P500 Sectors: Tech Stocks Lose Momentum
The summer rally that characterized the S&P500 saw a gradual rotation from technology and industrial stocks toward commodities and pharmaceuticals, while the energy and financial sectors remained stable; consumer stocks performed well.
U.S. Consumer Confidence: Positive Signals Continue in July, but Momentum Slow
The latest U.S. consumer confidence data for July show that the recovery from the April shock is continuing, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The intermarket analysis confirms this scenario.
High Yield Bonds: Euro-Denominated Ones Remain Strong, but Something’s Changing
Monetary policy dynamics also have an impact on the High Yield bond market. Let’s take a look at how USD- and EUR-denominated High Yield bonds are performing.
A weak dollar gives wings to emerging-market government bonds
2025 is shaping up to be a weak year for the US dollar, and this is also affecting the bond market—particularly the performance of government bonds from emerging markets. Let’s take a closer look at the relationship between these two…
IBEX 35 Holds Its Ground Against the DAX, but a Breakthrough Looks Challenging
Among the main European financial markets, only one seems able to keep pace with Frankfurt: Madrid. The Ibex 35 index has posted a year-to-date gain of over 21%, though that may not be enough to challenge the DAX’s dominance in…
U.S. Small Caps: Premature to Signal a Reversal
Monitoring the performance of small caps relative to large caps can provide important insights into market expectations regarding economic growth and interest rate trends. The analysis of the relative strength ratio indicates a weakening of the downward trend, but it…
More Weakness Ahead for the Dollar in H2 2025?
The first half of 2025 for the U.S. dollar was marked by high volatility, culminating in a significant decline during the early months of the year. On one hand, growing concerns over public finances and, on the other, the new…
Hang Seng Outperforms in Asia, but Investors Remain Cautious
The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a particularly positive phase, with the Hang Seng Index revisiting its highest levels since 2022 and posting the best year-to-date performance among Asian stock exchanges. Expansionary policies and a renewed appetite for technology…
USD Corporate Bonds Rebound Against Euro Counterparts in July
After a strong start to the year for euro-denominated corporate bonds, the trend appears to have reversed in recent weeks. However, European investors must take the exchange rate effect into account.
Turkey Trails Emerging Markets, but Investor Appetite Is Growing
Turkish equities continue to lag behind the broader emerging markets sector, but there are signs—at least in terms of investor interest—that something may be starting to shift.
