Insight
Emerging Markets vs US: The Ratio Reaches Levels Not Seen in Months
The S&P 500 to Emerging Markets ratio (SPY/EEM) has fallen to 11.53, positioning nearly 3 standard deviations below its annual mean (z-score: -2.70). The ratio’s RSI has dropped to 21.9 — deep oversold territory.
Financial Sector: what the correlation breakdown reveals?
Cross-asset correlations are undergoing an impressive transformation. Our weekly scan detects 46 emerging correlations and 26 decaying ones, with movements reaching +1.34 and -1.32 points — levels historically seen only during market regime changes.
U.S. vs Europe Equities: Is the Relative Strength Ratio Poised for a Turn?
The S&P 500/Euro Stoxx ratio stands at 11.077, a level close to its one-year historical average (z-score: -0.04) but positioned in the 82nd percentile of its long-term distribution. From a technical perspective, one element stands out: the RSI has fallen…
Gold/Copper Ratio: Is the Peak in Risk-Off Behind Us?
The Gold/Copper relative strength ratio is currently positioned at historically elevated levels, remaining in a well-defined uptrend. This configuration continues to signal a macro environment characterized by caution and lingering cyclical uncertainty.
Intermarket analysis of U.S. consumer confidence: stalemate in January 2026
Consumer confidence remains on a knife edge in the latest update of our intermarket analysis. Consumption-related sectors are underperforming the benchmark index, signaling a cautious environment.
S&P 500 sectors: in November 2025, tech stocks take a tumble
Let’s take a look at how the S&P 500 sectors performed in November, and also review the situation from the start of 2025 to today, with less than a month left in the year.
Gold, copper, and semiconductors: when markets tell two different stories
The relative-strength ratios between copper, gold, and semiconductors over the past 24 months highlight a significant divergence between financial markets and the real economy, with important implications for global growth prospects.
U.S. Consumer Confidence: Intermarket Analysis Signals Deterioration in November 2025
As we do every month, let’s update the intermarket analysis related to U.S. consumer confidence. The main indicator has broken below the 50-day moving average, a sign of decreasing optimism among households.
Tech Sector Strength Fuels South Korean Equity Surge
Over the past 12 months, South Korea’s equity market, measured by the KOSPI index, has delivered a very strong performance: the index climbed above 4,108 points as of October 31, 2025, marking an increase of approximately +61.6% compared to the…
Tech and Semiconductors Power the U.S. Stock Market Rally
In recent days, the main U.S. stock indices have reached new all-time highs, but this strong performance is not reflected when analyzing the sectors that make up the S&P 500. This is not a contradiction, but rather a snapshot of…
U.S. Equities: Momentum Fades – Intermarket Analysis, October 2025
After a challenging first quarter in 2025, U.S. equities attempted to regain ground against other global markets. However, in recent weeks, the strength of this rebound appears to be losing momentum.
U.S. Consumer Confidence: Intermarket Update – October 2025
A few months on, we return to update our intermarket assessment of U.S. consumer sentiment.Overall, the indicators remain tilted toward optimism, supported by resilient confidence in the economy’s outlook. However, in recent weeks, some signs of growing caution have emerged,…
U.S. Treasuries Recover Against Eurozone Government Bonds
After a period of weakness, U.S. government bonds have begun to regain ground against their European counterparts, partly due to renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Precious Metals: The 2025 Boom in Three Charts
One of the main characteristics of financial markets in 2025 is undoubtedly the strong rise in precious metal prices. Not only gold, but also silver and other noble metals have delivered performance far exceeding that of equities. Let’s look at…
Saylor-Buffett Ratio Back to Dot-Com Bubble Levels in October 2025 — But Don’t Rush to Conclusions
One of the indicators often cited to assess the level of “riskiness” in the current equity rally is undoubtedly the Saylor-Buffett Ratio. We have already discussed it in our previous Insights, so let’s take a look at the updated situation…
S&P 500 Sectors: Tech Still Leads in September 2025
The usual monthly analysis of sector rotation within the S&P 500 confirms that, in September 2025, the technology sector continued to perform particularly well — but somewhat surprisingly, utilities also stood out.
Signals from U.S. High Yield and Small Caps: Fed Expectations Fall, Recession Risk Low
What can two market segments, particularly sensitive to U.S. monetary policy and economic growth, tell us? The analysis of U.S. High Yield bonds and Small Cap stocks seems to confirm a reduction in expectations for Fed rate hikes and a…
Latin American Equities Continue Their Recovery in 2025
After last spring’s slowdown, Latin American equities have continued their recovery phase that began in January 2025, driven by major markets such as Brazil and Mexico, but also by the surprising performance of Colombia.
Oil Falls, but U.S. Refineries Outperform the S&P 500
In the U.S., shares of oil refineries are outperforming the S&P 500 amid falling crude prices and potential exemptions related to renewable fuels. This represents a small market niche (accounting for 3% of the index) within a sector—energy—that remains weak.
Weak Dollar, Emerging Market Equities and Bonds Compared
The weakness of the dollar, driven in recent weeks by the Fed’s actions, has among its effects an appreciation of emerging market equities and bonds.
