Week Ends on Cautious Note as Central Banks Stay Wary and Gold Declines
Financial markets are preparing to close another very challenging week. The war in Iran and its impact on energy prices and inflation remain the main topics, with central banks showing a very cautious stance—not only in their decisions but also in their commentary on future scenarios.
As the week draws to a close, with sentiment still hovering between neutral and negative, the standout development is the negative performance of gold, which is being weighed down by expectations of rising interest rates, a strong dollar, and some profit-taking.
Futures indicate a negative opening for Europe and a slightly positive one for the United States. Financial markets today show a neutral to moderately negative sentiment.
Market Weather Map
March 20, 2026
US Equities
Eu Equities
Asia Equities
Commodities
Bonds
Dollar Index
Technology
Gold
Oil
Crypto
Market Summary
Intermarket analysis highlights a Market Health Score of 5/100 (negative). Our intermarket dashboards today primarily signal weakness in gold.
The Dow/Gold ratio has returned to its 50-day moving average, while the Dollar/Gold ratio has fallen below its medium-term moving average. Meanwhile, the Oil/Gold ratio has returned to levels seen in July of last year. A mix of profit-taking and—more significantly—expectations of rising inflation and interest rates is weakening the bullion, with its Health Score hovering around 45 points, in a zone of neutrality and limited directionality.
Elsewhere, there are no major developments regarding indicators of risk appetite, nor across asset classes, where both equities and bonds remain in a delicate position and below their 50-day moving averages.
Pre-Market Futures: Global futures point to a moderate risk-off sentiment (average -0.36%), with the U.S. slightly positive (+0.20%), Europe negative (-0.57%), and Asia slightly negative (-0.46%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Market Sentiment
- Euro Stoxx 50 derived: +0.76%
- Mini DAX: +0.70%
- DAX derived: +0.64%
- TecDAX derived: -2.71%
- FTSE MIB derived: -2.37%
- IBEX 35 derived: -1.96%
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-03-20 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 5.0/100 SENTIMENT: BEARISH ============================================================ SUMMARY OF MAIN RATIOS ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Flight to safe haven Gold/USD: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Declining energy demand SP500/VIX: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Expectations of slowdown SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market is in bearish territory. Widespread stress signals. Risk-off movement underway. Maximum caution. Positioning: VERY DEFENSIVE, capital preservation. STRONGEST RATIOS: • DJ/Gold: 5.0/100 • Gold/USD: 5.0/100 • Oil/Gold: 5.0/100 WEAKEST RATIOS: • SP500/VIX: 5.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 5.0/100 • SP500/Nasdaq: 5.0/100 ============================================================ Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-03-20
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-03-20
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MARKET REGIME: RISK-OFF
REGIME SCORE: 15.0/100
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TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
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GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short-Term Trend (5d): -0.11% | BELOW EMA 10
Medium-Term Trend (20d): -5.59% | BELOW EMA 50
Long-Term Trend (60d): -1.67% | ABOVE EMA 200
Volatility 5d: 17.2%
Volatility 20d: 15.7%
Volatility 60d: 13.0%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +17.24% | ABOVE EMA 50
Volatility 20d: 22.7%
ACWI/BND Correlation (30d): 0.191
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market is in a risk-off regime. Negative trends across multiple horizons and/or
elevated volatility. Flight to safe assets underway.
Suggested positioning: DEFENSIVE, capital protection.
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ASSET RANKING - WHO IS PERFORMING BEST?
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🥇 1. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 100/100
Price: $28.84
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +0.45% | 20d +17.24% | 60d +28.81%
Volatility: 5d 25.2% | 20d 22.7% | 60d 22.7%
Drawdown: -1.47%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 62/100
Price: $73.76
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +0.29% | 20d -1.10% | 60d +0.28%
Volatility: 5d 4.8% | 20d 3.9% | 60d 3.3%
Drawdown: -1.58%
→ Asset in FAIR CONDITION: predominantly positive signals
🥉 3. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 20/100
Price: $139.38
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.11% | 20d -5.59% | 60d -1.67%
Volatility: 5d 17.2% | 20d 15.7% | 60d 13.0%
Drawdown: -6.24%
→ Asset in DIFFICULTY: avoid or heavily underweight
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CORRELATION ANALYSIS - CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
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ACWI/BND:
Current Correlation (30d): +0.191
Historical Average (1 year): +0.151
Deviation: +0.040
→ Weak correlation: moderate diversification
BND/DBC:
Current Correlation (30d): -0.713
Historical Average (1 year): -0.220
Deviation: -0.492
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
ACWI/DBC:
Current Correlation (30d): -0.129
Historical Average (1 year): +0.105
Deviation: -0.234
→ Negative correlation: possible supply-driven shift
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OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
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STRONGEST ASSET: Commodities (Score: 100/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Global Equities (Score: 20/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Reduce exposure to the weakest asset, favor defensive positioning.
DIVERSIFICATION: GOOD - diversification benefits present.
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Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-03-20
On the macro front, the day does not feature particularly decisive events for investors’ decisions. Noteworthy, however, are the Chinese central bank’s moves on prime rates, German producer prices for February, the state of UK public finances, and retail sales in Canada.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 20 March 2026 - 7:32 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.