US July Inflation in Focus as Markets Eye Gold, Dollar and Bond Yields

Today is US inflation day for July 2026. This is probably the most closely watched data release of the month, alongside Nvidia’s earnings, which are due in a couple of weeks. Expectations of a slight increase could strengthen the case for a wait-and-see approach by the Fed in September as well, providing further support to gold’s recovery (currently slightly lower, at 56 points, in our score). Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures could revive the dollar and accelerate Treasury yields, putting pressure on the board led by Warsh.

Meanwhile, the technology sector remains in neutral territory, with the S&P 500/Nasdaq ratio approaching an important resistance zone. Futures point to a slightly above-flat opening for both Europe and the United States.

Financial markets sentiment

Financial markets are showing moderately positive sentiment today. The intermarket analysis indicates a Market Health Score of 72/100 (positive). There are few changes to report across our intermarket dashboards. Worth highlighting is the further strengthening into risk-on territory of the S&P 500/VIX ratio, as well as the attempt by the S&P 500/Nasdaq ratio to test the resistance represented by its long-term moving average. Otherwise, the picture continues to show a slight strengthening of gold against both the Dow and the Dollar, while the situation appears more balanced versus Oil.

Looking at the asset classes, the short-term uptrend in global equities is confirmed. The bond market remains in a delicate position, still trading below its medium- and long-term moving averages. Commodities are benefiting from the simultaneous rise in both gold and oil.

Our market weather map shows a substantially stable situation for equities. The Dollar remains below the 50-point threshold, while bonds and crypto remain weak.

Global Futures – Pre-Market Sentiment

Pre-Opening Futures: Global futures are signaling a moderately risk-on sentiment (+0.11% on average), with the US slightly positive (+0.14%), Europe slightly positive (+0.06%), and Asia slightly negative (-0.22%).

Macroeconomic calendar

On the macro front, the day revolves around the US inflation figures for July. Also worth noting are the final July inflation readings for Germany and France.

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NOTES AND WARNINGS

Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 12 August 2026 - 8:02 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.