Tariff issue weighs on financial markets amid light macroeconomic data
On a day devoid of macroeconomic news, the tariff ‘blizzard’ dominated. The equity markets entered a delicate phase, with the S&P500 hitting the lows of the beginning of the year. On the other hand, the positive momentum in bonds continued.
Our intermarket dashboards show an increase in risk-off positions, with the S&P500/Vix, T-30/S&P500 and S&P500/Nasdaq moving out of the volatility band. The situation is becoming precarious for equities, with the S&P500 testing the lows of the start of the year, turning the 50-day average into resistance and risking a slide towards the long-term average if the 5800 area fails to hold. At the same time, bonds are taking another step towards the September 2024 highs.
The macroeconomic day brought no major news. The Eurozone unemployment rate and South Korean industrial production will be of interest.
On the quarterly front, it will be interesting to see the results from two big names in the retail sector, Best Buy and Target. The resilience of consumer spending and the impact of tariffs on prices will be on investors’ minds as they read the releases and guidance.
Our forecasting analysis continues to signal a moment of high uncertainty, mostly focused on US equities, but also affecting commodities. Gold is also in a wait-and-see mode, while on the currency front we are positive on the Swiss franc (defensive move?). Volatility stable or slightly rising.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 4 March 2025 - 7:42 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
