Risk-Off Sentiment Rises Amid Middle East Tensions
Another complicated Monday for financial markets, which will have to deal with tensions in the Middle East and the potential impact on oil prices. In a risk-off climate, gold is rising while cryptocurrencies are falling. Meanwhile, the June PMI surveys will offer further insight into the impact of tariffs on the global economy.
Our intermarket dashboards are starting to show risk-off signals stemming from the escalation in the Middle East affecting financial markets. The S&P 500/VIX ratio has dropped below its annual average, while the spike in oil and the rise in gold are pushing the ratio between Commodities and U.S. 30-year bond yields sharply upward—a sign of inflationary pressures. For now, the baseline market situation hasn’t changed, but S&P 500 momentum appears to be cooling.
On the macroeconomic front, today will bring the release of flash PMI survey data for June. The U.S. will also publish data on existing home sales for May.
Our forecast analyses suggest a trading day for equities that could range from uncertain to negative. There are still positive signals for corporate bonds, while cryptocurrencies show negative indications. Equity market volatility is expected to rise.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 23 June 2025 - 7:14 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
