Oil Back Above $100 Rekindles Market Fears, Fuels Volatility
News coming from the war front is sweeping away the positive intentions that had calmed financial markets during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. Oil troubles—back above $100 per barrel despite the massive use of IEA reserves—continue to set the tone, fueling volatility and uncertainty. Communication that offers no clear outlook for a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East does the rest.
The overall climate remains neutral to moderately negative, with the US dollar and crude oil the only assets exceeding 60 points in our Health Score. Futures point to a negative opening for both Europe and the United States.
Market Weather Map
March 12, 2026
US Equities
Eu Equities
Asia Equities
Commodities
Bonds
Dollar Index
Technology
Gold
Oil
Crypto
Market Summary
Financial markets today show a neutral to moderately negative sentiment. Intermarket analysis highlights a Market Health Score of 40/100 (moderately negative). Our market weather map shows that only two assets currently achieve a positive assessment: the Dollar Index and oil.
Our intermarket dashboards confirm the situation. The Oil/Gold ratio is rebounding from its long-term moving average, while risk appetite indicators remain weak. Meanwhile, the Commodities/30-year Treasury ratio is surging, signaling growing inflation concerns.
Regarding asset classes, the situation remains delicate for global equities, which are still trading below the 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, bonds have broken below the support of their medium-term moving average, reflecting expectations that interest rates may no longer be declining.
The correlation between commodities and bonds has fallen to -0.5, moderately negative and close to its one-year lows.
Pre-Opening Futures: Global futures signal a risk-off sentiment (average -0.71%), with US futures sharply negative (-1.26%), Europe negative (-0.59%), and Asia slightly negative (-0.35%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Opening Sentiment
- CSI 300: +0.43%
- IBEX 35 derived: +0.24%
- Mini MDAX derived: +0.00%
- Russell 2000: -2.17%
- Dow Jones: -1.12%
- CAC 40 derived: -1.03%
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-03-12 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 39.7/100 SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BEARISH ============================================================ SUMMARY OF MAIN RATIOS ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: 9.1762 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -8.51% - 50-day ROC: -14.68% → Flight to safe havens Gold/USD: - Component score: 95.0/100 - Current value: 52.0750 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +0.74% - 50-day ROC: +12.70% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 80.0/100 - Current value: 0.0169 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +32.09% - 50-day ROC: +34.78% - ⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED - Significant deviation from the mean → Rising energy demand SP500/VIX: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: 279.6451 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -28.33% - 50-day ROC: -45.12% → Risk appetite contracting Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 80.0/100 - Current value: 0.3228 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +18.00% - 50-day ROC: +23.89% - ⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED - Significant deviation from the mean → Economic growth expectations SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: 0.2983 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -0.73% - 50-day ROC: +1.55% ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market shows signs of weakness. Several ratios are in negative territory. Risk appetite declining. Increase caution. Positioning: DEFENSIVE, favor safe havens. STRONGEST RATIOS: • Gold/USD: 95.0/100 • Oil/Gold: 80.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 80.0/100 WEAKEST RATIOS: • DJ/Gold: 5.0/100 • SP500/VIX: 5.0/100 • SP500/Nasdaq: 5.0/100 ============================================================ Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-03-12
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-03-12
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MARKET REGIME: MODERATE RISK-OFF
REGIME SCORE: 30.0/100
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TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
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GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short-Term Trend (5d): -0.27% | BELOW EMA 10
Medium-Term Trend (20d): -3.23% | BELOW EMA 50
Long-Term Trend (60d): +1.71% | ABOVE EMA 200
5d Volatility: 14.2%
20d Volatility: 13.5%
60d Volatility: 12.3%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +15.43% | ABOVE EMA 50
20d Volatility: 23.0%
ACWI/BND Correlation (30d): -0.094
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market is showing signs of caution. Trends are deteriorating across some horizons
or volatility is increasing. Investors are reducing risk exposure.
Suggested positioning: UNDERWEIGHT equities, favor quality and defensive assets.
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ASSET RANKING - WHO IS PERFORMING BEST?
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🥇 1. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 100/100
Price: $28.13
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +6.07% | 20d +15.43% | 60d +26.86%
Volatility: 5d 28.9% | 20d 23.0% | 60d 21.8%
Drawdown: 0.00%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 50/100
Price: $73.89
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.61% | 20d -0.28% | 60d +0.78%
Volatility: 5d 4.4% | 20d 3.8% | 60d 3.1%
Drawdown: -1.40%
→ Asset in NEUTRAL condition: mixed signals
🥉 3. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 40/100
Price: $142.94
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.27% | 20d -3.23% | 60d +1.71%
Volatility: 5d 14.2% | 20d 13.5% | 60d 12.3%
Drawdown: -3.84%
→ Asset in WEAK condition: negative trends or elevated volatility
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CORRELATION ANALYSIS - CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
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ACWI/BND:
Current correlation (30d): -0.094
Historical average (1 year): +0.154
Deviation: -0.247
→ Weak correlation: moderate diversification
BND/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.476
Historical average (1 year): -0.198
Deviation: -0.278
ACWI/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): +0.014
Historical average (1 year): +0.130
Deviation: -0.116
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OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
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STRONGEST ASSET: Commodities (Score: 100/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Global Equities (Score: 40/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Reduce exposure to the weakest asset, favor defensive positions.
DIVERSIFICATION: EXCELLENT - Asset classes are moving independently.
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Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-03-12
The macroeconomic calendar offers few catalysts today, all from the United States. Scheduled releases include weekly jobless claims, January 2026 housing starts, and January 2026 import and export data. It will also be interesting to hear remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 12 March 2026 - 7:39 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.