High volatility on financial markets as tariff war heats up
The tariff war is in full swing and financial markets are once again taking the brunt of it. US inflation data will try to refocus investors on the real economy. Meanwhile, the S&P500 is entering a correction phase and the bond rally is losing steam.
Our intermarket dashboards continue to indicate some risk aversion on the part of investors. At the same time, the ratio of commodities to 30-year Treasuries (an indicator of expectations for the US economy) is trying to maintain the bullish trend that began in September 2024, holding dynamic support in the 0.24 area. The most complicated situation remains that of the S&P500 (chart on the right), which has entered a correction phase, is in a resistance zone but risks revisiting the lows of mid-2024. Bonds lost power, while commodities continued their sideways phase.
On the macroeconomic front, it is US inflation data day in February. Markets will be looking to see whether the Fed will have two problems to deal with in the coming months (weak growth and inflation) or just one.
Our forecast analysis still points to a non-positive day for equities, but the presence of numerous volatility anomalies and the flooding of many technical indicators, barring any new presidential releases, could allow for a mini technical rebound. Uncertainty also in Europe and Asia. Interlocutory day also on the bond front, while volatility should move marginally compared to the past few days.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 12 March 2025 - 7:18 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
