Financial Markets Resume Bets on a More Accommodative Fed
Orphans – for the moment, due to the shutdown – of official data, financial markets are focusing on the disappointing ADP report numbers and are once again betting on a more active Fed between now and the end of the year. Uncertainty remains high, and there are signs (still weak at this stage) of upcoming sector rotations. Equities are seen as moderately positive, fixed income is on standby.
The situation remains essentially frozen on our intermarket dashboards. Gold continues its upward run, gaining strength both against the dollar and the Dow. Risk-on sentiment is still very much present, while we keep a close eye on the S&P500/Nasdaq ratio, which could provide some signals of sector rotation in the coming days. The loss of momentum in fixed income is confirmed, even though the long-term trend remains upward.
On the macroeconomic front, this will be the first real day without data from the US. The only exception is the update on job cut announcements. Elsewhere, attention is on Australian exports and Euro area unemployment.
Our forecasting analysis points to a still positive trend for equities, with somewhat more uncertainty in the US. The dollar remains in a phase of weakness, while signals for gold remain positive, albeit with increasingly evident overbought levels. Fixed income remains in a wait-and-see mode. Volatility is expected to increase slightly, especially for equities.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 2 October 2025 - 7:18 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
