Financial Markets: Gold’s Rally Comes to an Abrupt Halt as AI Concerns Weigh on the Start of February
January ended with a sharp halt to the rally in gold and silver, and this fresh bout of volatility is set to shape the opening week of February. Financial markets remain focused on earnings season, renewed doubts over the profitability of the AI ecosystem, and the near-term outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Futures point to a negative start to the week, with particular weakness expected in U.S. equity markets.
Market Weather Map
February 2, 2026
US Equities
Eu Equities
Asia Equities
Commodities
Bonds
Dollar Index
Technology
Gold
Oil
Crypto
Market Summary
Market sentiment today is neutral to mildly negative. Intermarket analysis shows a Market Health Score of 53/100 (neutral). Our intermarket dashboards clearly capture the abrupt slowdown in gold, while risk indicators continue to signal conditions ranging from neutral to moderately risk-off. Major asset classes retain a constructive medium-term trend, but are facing a weaker short-term momentum.
Pre-Market Futures: Global futures indicate a risk-off tone (average -0.74%), with U.S. markets sharply lower (-1.28%), Europe slightly negative (-0.17%), and Asia deeply negative (-1.70%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Market Sentiment
- IBEX 35 derived: +1.22%
- FTSE MIB derived: +1.00%
- TecDAX derived: +0.93%
- Hang Seng derived: -2.73%
- US Tech 100 derived: -1.66%
- Russell 2000: -1.46%
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-02-02 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 52.8/100 SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL ============================================================ KEY RATIO SUMMARY ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: 10.3720 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -6.65% - 50-day ROC: -9.43% → Flight to safe havens Gold/USD: - Component score: 95.0/100 - Current value: 48.6019 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +10.43% - 50-day ROC: +18.98% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 65.0/100 - Current value: 0.0138 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +4.21% - 50-day ROC: -6.06% → Energy demand improving SP500/VIX: - Component score: 35.0/100 - Current value: 397.8801 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -13.11% - 50-day ROC: +33.45% → Risk appetite contracting Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 80.0/100 - Current value: 0.2804 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +9.30% - 50-day ROC: +11.72% - ⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED – Significant deviation from the mean → Economic growth expectations SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 65.0/100 - Current value: 0.2958 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +0.42% - 50-day ROC: +0.65% ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market is in a neutral/sideways phase. Mixed signals across the various ratios. A clear directional bias is lacking. Await confirmation. Positioning: BALANCED, avoid excesses. STRONGEST RATIOS: • Gold/USD: 95.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 80.0/100 • Oil/Gold: 65.0/100 WEAKEST RATIOS: • SP500/Nasdaq: 65.0/100 • SP500/VIX: 35.0/100 • DJ/Gold: 5.0/100 ============================================================ Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-02-02
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-02-02
======================================================================
MARKET REGIME: RISK-ON
REGIME SCORE: 70.0/100
======================================================================
TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
======================================================================
GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short-Term Trend (5d): -0.15% | BELOW EMA 10
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +2.11% | ABOVE EMA 50
Long-Term Trend (60d): +4.91% | ABOVE EMA 200
Volatility 5d: 10.3%
Volatility 20d: 10.7%
Volatility 60d: 11.4%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +9.11% | ABOVE EMA 50
Volatility 20d: 19.7%
ACWI/BND Correlation (30d): 0.460
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market is in a risk-on regime. Equities show positive trends across multiple
time horizons and volatility remains contained. Investors favor risk assets.
Suggested positioning: OVERWEIGHT equities.
======================================================================
ASSET RANKING – WHO IS PERFORMING BEST?
======================================================================
🥇 1. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 90/100
Price: $24.43
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +0.58% | 20d +9.11% | 60d +10.32%
Volatility: 5d 33.1% | 20d 19.7% | 60d 15.3%
Drawdown: -3.44%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 86/100
Price: $145.50
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.15% | 20d +2.11% | 60d +4.91%
Volatility: 5d 10.3% | 20d 10.7% | 60d 11.4%
Drawdown: -1.06%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥉 3. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 86/100
Price: $74.23
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.15% | 20d +0.26% | 60d +0.57%
Volatility: 5d 1.2% | 20d 2.5% | 60d 2.8%
Drawdown: -0.27%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
======================================================================
CORRELATION ANALYSIS – CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
======================================================================
ACWI/BND:
Current correlation (30d): +0.460
Historical average (1 year): +0.134
Deviation: +0.326
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
→ Positive correlation: diversification COMPROMISED
BND/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.012
Historical average (1 year): -0.198
Deviation: +0.186
ACWI/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): +0.237
Historical average (1 year): +0.180
Deviation: +0.057
======================================================================
OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
======================================================================
STRONGEST ASSET: Commodities (Score: 90/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Global Bonds (Score: 86/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Favor the strongest asset, maintain risk exposure.
DIVERSIFICATION: EXCELLENT – Asset classes are moving independently.
======================================================================
Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-02-02
On the macro front, the first week of February opens with PMI survey data (final January readings), December retail sales in Germany, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing index for January.
On the earnings side, the spotlight today is on Palantir and Walt Disney, with additional attention on results from Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo.
Already a subscriber? Login here
NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 2 February 2026 - 7:25 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
