Endless Week on Financial Markets: Tariffs Weigh on Stocks Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data
It seems this intense week in the financial markets isn’t coming to an end. There’s the tariff chapter, with the new list of duties unveiled by President Trump and their (negative) impact on Asian stock markets. There’s also the U.S. July labor market report and inflation data from the Euro area. One thing to keep an eye on is the upward pressure on commodities (a potential source of future inflation); equities are seen as very uncertain, while fixed income still shows positive signals.
Our intermarket dashboards confirm the current weakness in gold, which is losing strength against the Dow, the Dollar, and Oil. The overall picture remains in a risk-on phase, although in the very short term, global equities have slipped below their 10-day moving average. Bonds remain in a positive trend, and commodities deserve close monitoring. We are observing a crossover of the 50-day moving average over the 200-day, and upward momentum could be fueled by the unraveling of the tariff situation. It’s worth remembering that the commodities market is an excellent leading indicator of future inflation trends.
On the macro front, today brings U.S. labor market data, July inflation for the Euro area, the ISM manufacturing index, and the final readings of the PMI surveys and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
As for earnings, today sees results from energy giants Exxon and Chevron.
Our forecast analysis points to a highly uncertain day for equity markets, with some negative signals emerging between the U.S. and Europe. On the fixed income side, we expect a decline in yields on U.S. Treasuries and a positive outlook for USD corporate bonds and High Yield. Equity volatility is expected to remain stable or rise slightly.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 1 August 2025 - 8:23 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
