Bond Pressure Builds as S&P 500/Nasdaq Hits Critical Level; Equities, Sentiment Stay Neutral

The trading week is drawing to a close with escalating tensions in the Middle East reigniting expectations of higher inflation and rising interest rates. Market sentiment remains in neutral territory, as does the equity assessment provided by our scoring models, but investor mood has turned somewhat more cautious. Pressure on fixed income continues to build, while the S&P 500/Nasdaq ratio has reached a critical area for the technology sector. Futures point to a flat opening in the United States and a weaker start in Europe.

Financial markets sentiment

Financial markets are currently displaying a neutral overall sentiment. Our intermarket analysis shows a Market Health Score of 65/100, indicating a positive underlying backdrop. However, tensions in the Middle East and concerns about a broader regional conflict are beginning to affect our intermarket dashboards, generating several noteworthy signals. The Commodities/Bonds ratio has returned to its May levels, while the Oil/Gold ratio has also rebounded, reviving inflation expectations and prompting a reassessment of the outlook for monetary policy.

Overall market sentiment remains neutral. The S&P 500/VIX ratio has become more volatile and is now trading around its long-term moving average. Another signal that deserves close attention is the break—still awaiting confirmation—above the 200-day moving average resistance in the S&P 500/Nasdaq ratio. Technology sector weakness remains evident, and the first wave of quarterly earnings has done little to ease investors’ growing concerns.

Asset class performance continues to tell the same story. Equities remain in a sideways trading range for now, while global bonds have fallen below their long-term moving average, confirming the short-term weakness in fixed income. Commodities, meanwhile, continue to maintain their upward momentum.

Our market weather map continues to point to a constructive outlook for the U.S. dollar and crude oil, broadly neutral conditions for equities, and ongoing weakness in the bond market. Currently, 41% of the assets we monitor are in neutral territory. Among the weakest Health Scores are long-dated U.S. Treasuries, while the lowest seven-day Momentum Score has been recorded by U.S. High Yield bonds.

Global Futures – Pre-Market Sentiment

Pre-Market Futures: Global futures indicate a risk-off tone, with an average decline of 0.67%. U.S. futures are slightly lower (-0.11%), European futures are down (-0.83%), and Asian futures are modestly weaker (-0.36%).

Macroeconomic calendar

On the macroeconomic front, today’s calendar includes the preliminary July PMI surveys, Japan’s June inflation figures, Germany’s consumer confidence data, U.S. June new home sales, and U.K. retail sales.

On the earnings front, investors will be closely watching results from Exxon, Verizon and American Express.

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NOTES AND WARNINGS

Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 24 July 2026 - 8:19 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.