Between tariffs and counter-tariffs, investors look to the PCE price index
Trump’s decisions were followed by less than conciliatory words from Canada, China and Europe. The impression is that there is no room for negotiation in the trade war that has now been declared. The markets are taking note and, after the hopes of the beginning of the week, are heading for the end of the week with fresh fears about growth and inflation. Today we will know more with the data from Spain and France and the core PCE index.
Our intermarket dashboards show no particular changes over the past few days. It seems that uncertainty over the next steps in this trade war is leaving investors without a clear direction. Equities are struggling to rally, the bond rally is pausing and commodities seem to be the only ones moving higher, albeit at a slow pace and waiting to test key resistance zones.
On the macroeconomic front, it’s the day of the US personal income and spending data for March and the eagerly awaited PCE price index, an indicator closely watched by the Fed. Eurozone inflation data will also be released, with March figures from Spain and France. The update of the economic sentiment index is also expected.
It remains an uncertain day for the financial markets. Our forecast analysis shows very few positive signals on the equity front, while on the bond front the evidence continues to point to a fresh rise in yields. On the currency front, the situation also remains tentative, while volatility is expected to remain stable or increase slightly for equities.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 28 March 2025 - 7:25 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
