Intermarket analysis of U.S. consumer confidence: stalemate in January 2026
Consumer confidence remains on a knife edge in the latest update of our intermarket analysis. Consumption-related sectors are underperforming the benchmark index, signaling a cautious environment.
We begin by examining the trend of the relative strength ratio between the consumer discretionary sector and the consumer staples sector. As can be seen in the chart above, after the sharp slowdown last November, consumer sentiment regained ground, moving above its medium-term moving average and reaching new two-year highs.
The most recent move in January still needs to be assessed, as it is closely linked to the geopolitical uncertainties that have emerged in recent days. Overall, however, the outlook for consumption remains subdued.
In the two charts above, we observe that the relative strength of both discretionary and defensive sectors is weakening compared to the broader market index. This is an important signal which, combined with the previous observations, suggests a degree of caution regarding consumer confidence — not declining, but still constrained by prevailing uncertainty.
