27 March 2026

Deep Dive: current situation and outlook for long-term US Treasuries

As we also saw in yesterday’s analysis, the performance of long-term government bonds is certainly one of the most closely watched elements by investors. In today’s deep dive, we focus on U.S. Treasuries and analyze the current situation and possible scenarios for long-term Treasury bonds.

If the current technical picture is clearly negative, the turning point for long-term Treasuries depends on the market’s ability to anticipate three scenarios: inflation, recession, or stagflation.

price — TLTAl 2026-03-24102.798.794.790.686.682.6price2024-03-252024-07-242024-11-192025-03-242025-07-232025-11-182026-03-202026-03-2486.0MA 10MA 50MA 200© kbmeter.com

Current situation TLT is at a historically anomalous point.

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