Cyclical Analysis: Between Confirmations and Anomalies, What Outlook for Gold?
Since the beginning of 2026, gold has delivered a return of more than 16%, compared with a historical seasonal expectation of approximately 3.5%. A thirteen-percentage-point deviation from the norm that, from a quantitative standpoint, represents one of the most pronounced YTD anomalies recorded on the precious metal over the past decade.
The data point is not isolated. Our cyclical analysis shows that the three monitored time horizons — short, medium, and long term — are currently aligned in the same direction for the first time in the observation period. The Hurst exponent, a statistical measure of trend persistence, stands at 0.57: firmly in “trending” territory, historically favoring trend-following strategies over mean-reversion approaches.
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This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors are advised to consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
