Markets Start Week Cautiously as US-Iran Tensions and Inflation Loom
The week begins once again under a cloud of uncertainty, with financial markets seemingly determined to remain highly cautious in taking positions amid the continuous — and often contradictory — updates surrounding the US-Iran crisis. The broader backdrop remains tilted toward a risk-on environment, but volatility continues to stay elevated, as investors also await tomorrow’s US inflation data to assess the room for maneuver available to both the White House and the Federal Reserve. Futures point to a slightly negative start to the week for both Europe and the United States.
Market Weather Map
May 11, 2026
US Equities
Eu Equities
Asia Equities
Commodities
Bonds
Dollar Index
Technology
Gold
Oil
Crypto
Market Summary
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Il sentiment sui mercati finanziari
Financial markets are currently showing a neutral to moderately positive sentiment. Intermarket analysis highlights a Market Health Score of 72/100, signaling a positive underlying environment. Our intermarket dashboards indicate a broadly stable market sentiment. For now, neutrality prevails, and investors are likely to wait before taking significant positions on the latest developments regarding the US-Iran situation, while also monitoring April inflation figures to better understand how much flexibility remains for the White House and the Fed.
Global Futures – Pre-Market Sentiment
Pre-Market Futures: Global futures are signaling a moderately risk-off sentiment (average -0.21%), with US futures slightly negative (-0.13%), European futures slightly negative (-0.04%), and Asian futures weaker (-0.80%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Market Sentiment
- CAC 40 derived: +0.25%
- FTSE 100 derived: +0.13%
- Euro Stoxx 50 derived: +0.08%
- Nikkei 225 derived: -1.75%
- TecDAX derived: -0.70%
- CSI 300: -0.58%
Intermarket details
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-05-11 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 72.5/100 SENTIMENT: BULLISH ============================================================ SUMMARY OF KEY RELATIONSHIPS ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 65.0/100 - Current value: 10.5095 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +4.44% - 50-day ROC: +9.91% → Preference for risky assets over safe havens Gold/USD: - Component score: 75.0/100 - Current value: 48.2461 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: -0.05% - 50-day ROC: -8.86% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 75.0/100 - Current value: 0.0202 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: -0.32% - 50-day ROC: +60.47% → Declining energy demand SP500/VIX: - Component score: 95.0/100 - Current value: 430.4206 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +21.42% - 50-day ROC: +16.06% → Expanding risk appetite Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 95.0/100 - Current value: 0.3520 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +6.43% - 50-day ROC: +26.93% → Expectations of economic growth SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 0.0/100 - Current value: 0.2819 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -5.29% - 50-day ROC: -6.65% - ⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED - Significant deviation from the average ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market is showing widespread signs of strength. Intermarket relationships suggest a risk-friendly environment. Elevated risk appetite and positive trends. Positioning: CONSTRUCTIVE on risky assets. STRONGEST RELATIONSHIPS: • SP500/VIX: 95.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 95.0/100 • Gold/USD: 75.0/100 WEAKEST RELATIONSHIPS: • Oil/Gold: 75.0/100 • DJ/Gold: 65.0/100 • SP500/Nasdaq: 0.0/100 ============================================================ Data processed by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-05-11
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-05-11
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MARKET REGIME: RISK-ON
REGIME SCORE: 75.0/100
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TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
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GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short-Term Trend (5d): +3.11% | ABOVE EMA 10
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +6.13% | ABOVE EMA 50
Long-Term Trend (60d): +6.68% | ABOVE EMA 200
5d Volatility: 19.7%
20d Volatility: 14.4%
60d Volatility: 17.9%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +4.63% | ABOVE EMA 50
20d Volatility: 22.6%
ACWI/BND Correlation (30d): 0.580
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market is currently in a risk-on regime. Equities are showing positive trends across multiple
time horizons and volatility remains contained. Investors are favoring risky assets.
Suggested positioning: OVERWEIGHT equities.
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ASSET RANKING - TOP PERFORMERS
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🥇 1. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 90/100
Price: $155.38
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +3.11% | 20d +6.13% | 60d +6.68%
Volatility: 5d 19.7% | 20d 14.4% | 60d 17.9%
Drawdown: -0.01%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 76/100
Price: $30.30
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -3.29% | 20d +4.63% | 60d +27.31%
Volatility: 5d 28.2% | 20d 22.6% | 60d 24.7%
Drawdown: -3.29%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥉 3. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 72/100
Price: $73.55
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +0.60% | 20d -0.01% | 60d -0.52%
Volatility: 5d 5.3% | 20d 4.0% | 60d 4.4%
Drawdown: -1.20%
→ Asset in STRONG HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
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CORRELATION ANALYSIS - CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
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ACWI/BND:
Current correlation (30d): +0.580
Historical average (1 year): +0.225
Deviation: +0.355
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
→ Positive correlation: diversification COMPROMISED
BND/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.551
Historical average (1 year): -0.282
Deviation: -0.269
ACWI/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.718
Historical average (1 year): -0.036
Deviation: -0.682
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
→ Negative correlation: possible supply-driven shift
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OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
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STRONGEST ASSET: Global Equities (Score: 90/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Global Bonds (Score: 72/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Favor the strongest asset while maintaining risk exposure.
DIVERSIFICATION: WEAK - Asset classes tend to move together.
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Data processed by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-05-11
Macroeconomic calendar
On the macro front, today’s calendar includes China’s April inflation data and US existing home sales figures for April 2026.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 11 May 2026 - 7:16 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
