Financial markets try not to be overwhelmed by new rumours of US tariffs
Once again, one step forward, two steps back for US trade policy. Financial markets are trying not to be overwhelmed by the new rumours of US tariffs, but the situation remains risk-off. Gold is losing some strength, bonds are trying to maintain the rally started in January, and sterling is doing well
Our intermarket dashboards confirm the risk-off nature of the markets. Despite the volatility, the T30/SPY and Commodities/T30 indicators continue to point to the risk of an economic slowdown and rising inflation. The rebound in equities is not yet enough to signal a change in direction. As for bonds, the global index is trying to hold the 200-day moving average and the bullish trend that began in January.
On the macroeconomic front, the day offered plenty of interesting data. We will start with the ZEW index for Germany and the Euro-Zone, as well as industrial production data for the Euro-Zone. Also of interest is the situation in the UK labour market, especially with regard to wage trends. In the afternoon, import prices for March and the Empire State index for April will be released from the United States.
On the earnings front, Bank of America and J&J are due later in the day. The latter is particularly important for clues on consumer spending trends.
Our outlook analysis still points to an intermediate situation for equities. While there are buying signals on the one hand, volatility anomalies and a less than positive technical picture weigh on the other. In commodities, there are positive signs for food, but a wait-and-see attitude for gold. In currencies, the positive assessment of the pound sterling continues. In bonds, the green signal is back for European corporate bonds, while US yields are in a wait-and-see mode. For equities, volatility is stable or rising slightly.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 15 April 2025 - 7:33 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
