Financial markets kick off a macro-heavy week amid uncertainty and a Japan-led rally
Financial markets are set to kick off a data-heavy week on the macroeconomic front, with US labor market and inflation figures leading the pack of key market movers. Sentiment remains uncertain, although a wave of buying from Asia—sparked by developments around the Japanese elections—may provide some support to Western equity markets. Futures point to a positive open for Wall Street and a more mixed start in Europe.
Market Weather Map
February 9, 2026
US Equities
Eu Equities
Asia Equities
Commodities
Bonds
Dollar Index
Technology
Gold
Oil
Crypto
Market Summary
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Markets are showing a neutral to slightly negative tone today. Intermarket analysis puts the Market Health Score at 41/100, indicating a moderately negative backdrop. Our intermarket dashboards flagged last Friday’s rebound attempt, but risk indicators remain in a zone of uncertainty and are still subject to elevated volatility. There are no major changes on the asset-class front, with the notable exception of a sharp decline in the correlation between equities and bonds, now close to returning to its annual average.
Pre-market futures: Global futures signal a moderate risk-off bias (–0.05% on average), with US futures slightly positive (+0.04%), Europe marginally negative (–0.19%) and Asia slightly positive (+0.25%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Market Sentiment
- TecDAX derived: +0.71%
- Hang Seng derived: +0.59%
- Russell 2000: +0.56%
- IBEX 35 derived: -1.81%
- FTSE MIB derived: -1.79%
- CSI 300: -0.35%
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-02-09 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 41.2/100 SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BEARISH ============================================================ SUMMARY OF KEY RATIOS ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: 10.1219 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -8.58% - 50-day ROC: -10.83% → Flight to safe havens Gold/USD: - Component score: 95.0/100 - Current value: 50.7139 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +12.75% - 50-day ROC: +24.11% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: 0.0128 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -1.12% - 50-day ROC: -10.74% → Declining energy demand SP500/VIX: - Component score: 0.0/100 - Current value: 340.3191 - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: -24.03% - 50-day ROC: +4.15% - ⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED – Significant deviation from the average → Risk appetite contracting Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 95.0/100 - Current value: 0.2743 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +4.31% - 50-day ROC: +11.45% → Economic growth expectations SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 80.0/100 - Current value: 0.3010 - Position vs EMA50: ABOVE - 20-day ROC: +2.11% - 50-day ROC: +2.67% - ⚠️ ANOMALY DETECTED – Significant deviation from the average ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market shows signs of weakness. Several ratios are in negative territory. Risk appetite is declining. Increase caution. Positioning: DEFENSIVE, favor safe havens. STRONGEST RATIOS: • Gold/USD: 95.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 95.0/100 • SP500/Nasdaq: 80.0/100 WEAKEST RATIOS: • DJ/Gold: 5.0/100 • Oil/Gold: 5.0/100 • SP500/VIX: 0.0/100 ============================================================ Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-02-09
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-02-09
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MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL – HIGH VOLATILITY – UNSTABLE COMMODITIES
REGIME SCORE: 65.0/100
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TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
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GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short-Term Trend (5d): -0.02% | ABOVE EMA 10
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +1.06% | ABOVE EMA 50
Long-Term Trend (60d): +3.88% | ABOVE EMA 200
Volatility 5d: 20.6%
Volatility 20d: 13.7%
Volatility 60d: 11.7%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +4.85% | ABOVE EMA 50
Volatility 20d: 25.8%
ACWI/BND Correlation (30d): 0.196
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market is in a neutral phase. Mixed signals across short-, medium- and long-term
horizons, or positive trends accompanied by elevated volatility.
Suggested positioning: BALANCED, wait for greater clarity.
⚠️ VOLATILITY ALERT: Volatility is high or rising rapidly. This increases risk even
in the presence of positive trends. Reduce position sizing and increase
monitoring frequency.
⚠️ COMMODITIES ALERT: Commodities show elevated volatility. This may
indicate uncertainty around economic growth or unstable supply/demand dynamics.
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ASSET RANKING – WHO IS DOING BEST?
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🥇 1. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 100/100
Price: $74.23
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +0.43% | 20d +0.25% | 60d +0.60%
Volatility: 5d 3.4% | 20d 2.8% | 60d 2.8%
Drawdown: 0.00%
→ Asset in EXCELLENT HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 78/100
Price: $146.28
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.02% | 20d +1.06% | 60d +3.88%
Volatility: 5d 20.6% | 20d 13.7% | 60d 11.7%
Drawdown: -0.53%
→ Asset in EXCELLENT HEALTH: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥉 3. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 58/100
Price: $24.01
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +2.00% | 20d +4.85% | 60d +6.52%
Volatility: 5d 38.7% | 20d 25.8% | 60d 18.3%
Drawdown: -5.10%
→ Asset in FAIR CONDITION: predominantly positive signals
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CORRELATION ANALYSIS – CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
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ACWI/BND:
Current correlation (30d): +0.196
Historical average (1 year): +0.145
Deviation: +0.051
→ Weak correlation: moderate diversification
BND/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.010
Historical average (1 year): -0.189
Deviation: +0.179
ACWI/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): +0.221
Historical average (1 year): +0.175
Deviation: +0.045
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OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
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STRONGEST ASSET: Global Bonds (Score: 100/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Commodities (Score: 58/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Favor the strongest asset, maintain exposure to risk.
DIVERSIFICATION: EXCELLENT – Asset classes are moving independently.
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Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-02-09
On the macro side, the session looks relatively quiet, though close attention will be paid to US inflation expectations.
On the earnings front, the week gets underway with results from Apollo Global Management.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 9 February 2026 - 7:07 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
