Financial markets focus on international politics. Gold continues to run
As we await the monetary policy decisions, it is the international political news that is driving the financial markets. Tensions are reignited in the Middle East quadrant, while there are high expectations for the Trump-Putin phone call. Equities are trying to confirm yesterday’s signs of recovery, bonds remain stuck, while gold continues to run.
The V in the S&P500/VIX ratio confirms that the equity markets are stabilising. It is still too early to speak of a recovery as risk indicators continue to signal a certain caution on the part of investors. The S&P500 (right chart) is attempting to regain its 200-day moving average, an element that would give a little more certainty about the ability of the main US index to continue its long-term uptrend. On the other hand, the uptrend in bonds is flattening out, while commodities, led by metals, continue to trade sideways. It should be noted that the correlation between equities and bonds is currently close to zero.
On the macroeconomic front, the day was marked by data on German investor confidence, US housing starts and US import prices.
Overall, our forward looking analysis continues to point to an intermediate situation. There is no shortage of positive signals for equities and commodities. For bonds, a wait-and-see approach prevails, while volatility is expected to stabilise further
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 18 March 2025 - 7:22 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
