Financial markets between PMI surveys and hopes of “light” tariffs
Financial markets begin the week with the hope that the duties announced for 2 April by Trump will be more selective than expected, meanwhile PMI survey data will try to outline the health of the private sector in early spring. Still uncertainty in equities, while for bonds the rally seems to be back on track.
In our intermarket dashboards we observe how the markets are positioned in this early week. The S&P500/Vix ratio tries to retake the 50-day moving average, a signal of stabilisation. While the Dow/Gold ratio seems to have found a bottom for the time being. Gold slowing down against the dollar. In the charts on the right we can see how the S&P500 continues to remain below the two important 50 and 200-day moving averages, with a downward cross of the two indicators that is worrying. For bonds, the bullish trend that began last January is still holding up. For commodities, the situation remains more complex, with the index remaining above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, but with a direction that has not yet clearly emerged.
On the macroeconomic front, the week opens with flash data from the March PMI surveys, an interesting element in understanding the first effects of tariffs on companies. In the US, we also await the February CFNAI.
Our forecast analysis indicates another day marked by uncertainty, but for once the most positive signals are coming from the US and not Europe. The situation is mixed on the commodities front, with gold still showing a positive outlook, albeit less strong than in previous weeks. On the bond front, positive signals are coming from European corporate bonds, while US yields are seen to be rising slightly. Volatility stable or decreasing.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 24 March 2025 - 7:31 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
