A New Challenging Week Begins for Financial Markets, with Global Equities and Bonds Near Key Support Levels
The week in financial markets opens once again under the banner of uncertainty, with sentiment ranging from neutral to negative. The latest news coming from the Middle East does little to clarify the outlook, with signs of further escalation mixed with still very weak indications of a possible attempt at dialogue.
In this context, both global equities and global bonds are approaching their long-term moving averages, a support level which, if broken, could accelerate the downside. Futures indicate a very negative start for both Europe and the United States.
Market Weather Map
March 23, 2026
US Equities
Eu Equities
Asia Equities
Commodities
Bonds
Dollar Index
Technology
Gold
Oil
Crypto
Market Summary
Financial markets currently show a neutral to moderately negative sentiment. Intermarket analysis highlights a Market Health Score of 5/100 (negative). Our intermarket dashboards confirm what was observed in Friday’s analysis, with oil still in the spotlight and gold being affected by expected inflation dynamics. The only new development to note concerns the ratio between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, which has moved back above its 200-day moving average; this had not occurred since the late-January AI-driven sell-off.
On the asset class front, close attention should still be paid to developments in global equities (which have touched their long-term moving average) and global bonds (now close to their long-term moving average). Both asset classes are approaching levels that could either trigger a further downside acceleration or act as a support base; much will depend on incoming news from the Middle East. The correlation between equities and bonds rises to 0.4, firmly in positive territory.
Pre-Opening Futures: Global futures indicate a risk-off sentiment (average -1.17%), with the U.S. sharply negative (-1.10%), Europe very negative (-1.44%), and Asia slightly negative (-0.46%).
📊 Global Futures – Pre-Opening Sentiment
- Nikkei 225 derived: +0.23%
- Mini MDAX derived: +0.00%
- CSI 300: -0.04%
- IBEX 35 derived: -2.29%
- Russell 2000 c2: -2.27%
- FTSE 100 derived: -2.08%
📄 Detailed Intermarket Analysis
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS - 2026-03-23 ============================================================ MARKET HEALTH SCORE: 5.0/100 SENTIMENT: BEARISH ============================================================ SUMMARY OF MAIN RATIOS ============================================================ DJ/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Flight to safe haven Gold/USD: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Oil/Gold: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Declining energy demand SP500/VIX: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% Commodities/T30y: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% → Slowdown expectations SP500/Nasdaq: - Component score: 5.0/100 - Current value: nan - Position vs EMA50: BELOW - 20-day ROC: +nan% - 50-day ROC: +nan% ============================================================ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ============================================================ The market is in bearish territory. Signs of widespread stress. A risk-off move is underway. Maximum caution is advised. Positioning: VERY DEFENSIVE, capital preservation. STRONGEST RATIOS: • DJ/Gold: 5.0/100 • Gold/USD: 5.0/100 • Oil/Gold: 5.0/100 WEAKEST RATIOS: • SP500/VIX: 5.0/100 • Commodities/T30y: 5.0/100 • SP500/Nasdaq: 5.0/100 ============================================================ Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com Date: 2026-03-23
📄 Detailed Asset Allocation Analysis
ASSET ALLOCATION & REGIME ANALYSIS - 2026-03-23
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MARKET REGIME: RISK-OFF
REGIME SCORE: 0.0/100
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TREND AND VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
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GLOBAL EQUITIES (ACWI):
Short-Term Trend (5d): -3.49% | BELOW EMA 10
Medium-Term Trend (20d): -6.65% | BELOW EMA 50
Long-Term Trend (60d): -4.16% | BELOW EMA 200
5d Volatility: 22.0%
20d Volatility: 16.4%
60d Volatility: 13.6%
COMMODITIES (DBC):
Medium-Term Trend (20d): +16.93% | ABOVE EMA 50
20d Volatility: 22.7%
Correlation ACWI/BND (30d): 0.402
REGIME INTERPRETATION:
The market is in a risk-off regime. Negative trends across multiple horizons and/or elevated volatility.
Flight to safe assets.
Suggested positioning: DEFENSIVE, capital protection.
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ASSET RANKING - WHO IS PERFORMING BEST?
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🥇 1. Commodities (DBC) - SCORE: 100/100
Price: $28.94
Trend: ABOVE EMA10 | ABOVE EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d +2.23% | 20d +16.93% | 60d +27.83%
Volatility: 5d 24.8% | 20d 22.7% | 60d 22.6%
Drawdown: -1.13%
→ Asset in STRONG CONDITION: positive trends and controlled volatility
🥈 2. Global Bonds (BND) - SCORE: 30/100
Price: $73.17
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | ABOVE EMA200
Performance: 5d -0.89% | 20d -2.10% | 60d -0.51%
Volatility: 5d 7.7% | 20d 4.7% | 60d 3.7%
Drawdown: -2.36%
→ Asset in WEAK CONDITION: negative trends or elevated volatility
🥉 3. Global Equities (ACWI) - SCORE: 0/100
Price: $136.54
Trend: BELOW EMA10 | BELOW EMA50 | BELOW EMA200
Performance: 5d -3.49% | 20d -6.65% | 60d -4.16%
Volatility: 5d 22.0% | 20d 16.4% | 60d 13.6%
Drawdown: -8.15%
→ Asset in DIFFICULTY: avoid or significantly underweight
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CORRELATION ANALYSIS - CURRENT vs HISTORICAL
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ACWI/BND:
Current correlation (30d): +0.402
Historical average (1 year): +0.152
Deviation: +0.250
→ Positive correlation: diversification COMPROMISED
BND/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.562
Historical average (1 year): -0.224
Deviation: -0.338
⚠️ SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION from historical average
ACWI/DBC:
Current correlation (30d): -0.179
Historical average (1 year): +0.100
Deviation: -0.279
→ Negative correlation: possible supply-driven shift
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OPERATIONAL SUMMARY
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STRONGEST ASSET: Commodities (Score: 100/100)
WEAKEST ASSET: Global Equities (Score: 0/100)
SUGGESTED ACTION: Reduce exposure to the weakest asset, favor defensive positions.
DIVERSIFICATION: GOOD - Diversification benefits present.
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Analysis automatically generated by kbmeter.com
Date: 2026-03-23
On the macro front, the week begins with limited data releases. Noteworthy are the February update of the CFNAI (Chicago Fed National Activity Index) and, above all, the flash estimate of March consumer confidence in the Euro area. The survey will attempt to capture the initial impact of the Middle East conflict on consumer sentiment.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 23 March 2026 - 7:32 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
