An uncertain week on the stock markets is coming to an end
An uncertain week on the stock markets is coming to an end, during which the focus has shifted to the sustainability of U.S. debt and the effects on the budget of the “big, beautiful” tax bill. The measure has just been approved by the House and, according to many analysts, could further weigh on the federal deficit. Uncertainty also surrounds the bond market, while there are positive signals coming from commodities.
Our intermarket dashboards continue to indicate a stalled situation, both for equities and bonds. The recent weakness has brought the S&P 500 back to the fast-moving average and has weakened the bullish signal generated by the upward crossover between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Bonds are holding above the 200-day moving average support, but the bullish trend seen in January is starting to weaken. Commodities continue their recovery from the March lows, though the medium-term trend remains sideways.
On the macroeconomic front, today brings data on Japanese inflation, the final reading of Germany’s Q1 2025 GDP, and retail sales figures from Canada and the United Kingdom.
Our forecast analysis confirms the current uncertainty in the equity market, with only a few positive notes concentrated in Asia. The bond market also remains in a transitional phase, while more encouraging signals are seen in the commodity sector. On the currency front, the U.S. dollar remains weak. Volatility is expected to remain stable.
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NOTES AND WARNINGS
Data compiled by kbmeter.com. Analysis date: 23 May 2025 - 7:20 AM GMT+1
This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All scores and assessments are based on the previous trading day’s closing prices. Futures indications refer to the date and time of the analysis.
