A tense and difficult week comes to a close for financial markets

Financial markets are heading toward the close of a difficult week marked by a strong dose of nervousness. The relief brought by Nvidia’s numbers was short-lived, and U.S. employment data makes the outcome of the next Fed meeting even more uncertain. Equities remain hesitant, bonds are mixed, while gold and the dollar show positive signals. Volatility is high.

Our intermarket dashboards continue to indicate a very tense market environment. Sentiment is deteriorating, and risk indicators have fallen back to levels seen several months ago. The S&P 500/VIX ratio has returned to its lowest point since early May, while the S&P 500/Nasdaq ratio has climbed back to September levels. Gold has recovered relative to the Dow Jones but remains stable against oil and other commodities.

Looking at the performance of the main asset classes, we note that global equities have touched their lowest levels since late summer and are now hovering around an important resistance area, still remaining below the 50-day moving average. Bonds are holding above the 50-day moving average, while commodities continue to experience an extremely volatile phase.

On the macroeconomic front, today brings the flash estimates of November’s PMI surveys, inflation data from Japan, retail sales in the United Kingdom, and the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

Our forward-looking analyses continue to point to a very uncertain situation for equity markets, with very few convincingly positive signals. Mixed—though mostly wait-and-see—signals also characterize the bond and commodity segments. The outlook remains moderately positive for gold and the dollar. Volatility remains high.

Here's an overview of the individual assets analyzed…

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