US or Europe?

Last Update: 26/05/2024

Better to invest in US or European equities? The performance of the stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean also reflects the expectations of economic developments in the two areas. Using intermarket and technical analysis tools, we try to answer this question.

Valuations Trend

The graphs below show the appreciation of each asset measured by the valuation trend over the last 6 weeks on a scale of 0 to 10.

S&P 500
Valutazione: 2.5
Europe
Valutazione: 0

One week evaluation (short term)

The overall score obtained by individual assets in the last week. This is a short-term indication

S&P 500
0.3750
Europe
0.1500

Evaluation at 3 weeks (short term)

The 3-week average of the overall scores obtained by individual assets. This is a short-term indication but less volatile than the one-week figure

S&P 500
0.2917
Europe
0.2600

Evaluation at 10 weeks (medium term)

The 10-week average of the overall scores obtained by individual assets. This is a medium/long-term indication

Europe
0.3162
S&P 500
0.2186

Evaluation at 52 weeks (long term)

The 52-week average of the overall scores obtained by individual assets. This is a long-term indication

S&P 500
0.2260
Europe
0.1684

Assets prices trend

In which direction are the prices of the individual assets analysed currently heading? We assess this using some technical indicators.

S&P 500 Weakening bullish trend
Europe Weakening bullish trend

Buy/Sell

Buy/Sell signals from indicator analysis using artificial intelligence.

Asset
Confidence
Probabilities
Signal
S&P 500
57.143%
UP: 80%
DOWN:20%
Unsure
Europe
50%
UP: 80%
DOWN:20%
Unsure

Rating chart

The graph below depicts the valuations obtained by each asset over the last 4 weeks. it is useful, combined with the Acceleration Index, to identify the trend.

Strategy simulation trend

The chart below shows a simulation of an operational strategy based on opening a long position on the asset (or assets) with the best 3 weeks average score. The same graph also shows the trend of the reference index used for the calculations. The chart spans 260 weeks and is rolling (sliding one week at a time).

Last Update: 26/05/2024

4 weeks performance
  • Strategy: 0.415%
  • Benchmark: 0.6125%
52 weeks performance
  • Strategy: 0.476981%
  • Benchmark: 0.3804339%
257 weeks performance
  • Strategy: 0.316732%
  • Benchmark: 0.2108181%

Infos

How to read the data. The assets in each analysis are part of the same basket that serves as a benchmark index. Thus, for example, the US sectors are part of the S&P500 basket. The purpose of the analysis is to assess the strength of each asset within the benchmark basket to identify the one that has the greatest chance of 'doing better' than the others. Boxes 1,2,3 and 4 present the ranking of assets over various time horizons, with the top of the list being the one that, based on the indicators used, is finding the most market acceptance and tends to do better than the reference index. Boxes 5 and 6 assess the volatility and trend of valuations over time, indicators that serve to outline a possible future scenario for the various assets. Thus, for example, a high rank and a rising Acceleration Index indicate prospects for improvement. In addition to the charts, the analysis also shows the absolute trend of individual assets (box 7), i.e. whether the prices of the instruments considered are going up or down. This information is useful for understanding the overall trend of the basket. If the prevalence is for a rise, for example, it means that we are moving into a market with upward prospects.

What is the purpose of this data, how can I use it? The basic idea of our analysis is to give a concise picture of how investors are operating at the moment, what they are betting on and what they are avoiding. The analysis, as the simulation also shows, can be used as an informative aid for the creation of a short-term investment strategy.