Bond duration

Last Update: 07/12/2024

The financial duration is an indicator of bond risk (volatility). As the duration increases, so does the risk of a bond’s price fluctuation due to a change in interest rates. By extension, the choice of a certain duration by investors tells us the degree of perceived risk in the financial markets and the expectations of interest rates. Let us see what information we can draw from this through our analysis.

Summary

One week evaluation (short term)

The overall score obtained by individual assets in the last week. This is a short-term indication

Intermediate-Term
0.4500
Long-Term
0.3450
Short-Term
0.2950

Evaluation at 3 weeks (short term)

The 3-week average of the overall scores obtained by individual assets. This is a short-term indication but less volatile than the one-week figure

Intermediate-Term
0.3617
Long-Term
0.2767
Short-Term
0.2600

Evaluation at 10 weeks (medium term)

The 10-week average of the overall scores obtained by individual assets. This is a medium/long-term indication

Short-Term
0.2215
Intermediate-Term
0.1780
Long-Term
0.1305

Evaluation at 52 weeks (long term)

The 52-week average of the overall scores obtained by individual assets. This is a long-term indication

Intermediate-Term
0.4063
Short-Term
0.3763
Long-Term
0.3055

Assets prices trend

In which direction are the prices of the individual assets analysed currently heading? We assess this using some technical indicators.

Asset
Signal
Trend
Short-Term
Neutral
Worsening
Intermediate-Term
Bullish
Stable
Long-Term
Neutral
Stable

Positive/Negative

Positive/negative signals for volatility, prices and evaluations using artificial intelligence.

Asset
Volatility trend
Prices trend
Signal
Complex
Short-Term
-
-
+
+
Intermediate-Term
-
-
+
+
Long-Term
-
-
+
+

Valuations Trend

The graphs below show the appreciation of each asset measured by the valuation trend over the last 6 weeks on a scale of 0 to 10.

Short-Term
Valuation: 7.5
Trend: Miglioramento
Intermediate-Term
Valuation: 7.5
Trend: Miglioramento
Long-Term
Valuation: 7.5
Trend: Miglioramento

Rating chart

The graph below depicts the valuations obtained by each asset over the last 4 weeks. it is useful, combined with the "Positive/Negative", to identify the trend.

Strategy simulation trend

The chart below shows a simulation of an operational strategy based on opening a long position on the asset (or assets) with the best 3 weeks average score. The same graph also shows the trend of a Buy & Hold strategy of balanced assets. The chart spans 300 weeks and is rolling (sliding one week at a time).

Last Update: 07/12/2024

4 weeks
  • Strategy
    Rend: 0.184848%
    Dev.Std: 0.465287
  • Buy & Hold
    Rend: 0.134848%
    Dev.Std: 0.883653
52 weeks
  • Strategy
    Rend: 0.141373%
    Dev.Std: 0.394059
  • Buy & Hold
    Rend: 0.0046%
    Dev.Std: 0.890115
257 weeks
  • Strategy
    Rend: 0.21505%
    Dev.Std: 0.560475
  • Buy & Hold
    Rend: -0.02505%
    Dev.Std: 1.076913

Infos

How to read our analysis sheets. Each sheet presents a comparison between various financial assets that are part of a specific basket. For example, we may have all the industrial sectors in the S&P500 or the main categories of commodities in the CBOE basket.
The goal of our analysis is to assess how the various assets are performing by comparing them with each other and against a reference index. To do this, we use a series of technical and intermarket indicators, as well as volatility analysis and forecasting tools that employ models managed by artificial intelligence.
The result is summarized in a series of tables that present various information.

  • An assessment of the assets over different time horizons that provides a score for each individual element. The asset with the highest score is currently the one most favored by investors.
  • An analysis of the evaluations over time to understand their trends, i.e., whether they are improving or deteriorating, which allows us to evaluate the changing perspective of investors toward the various assets under analysis. This information is provided both numerically and through graphs.
  • A technical analysis of individual assets that allows us to assess the current situation, i.e., whether we are in an uptrend or downtrend, and adds the projected trend for the following week.
  • A comparative analysis of volatility, price forecasts, and evaluation results that indicates a trend for the assets in the upcoming week.

What is the purpose of this data, and how can I use it? The basic idea behind our analysis is to provide a concise overview of how investors are operating at the moment, what they are focusing on, and what they are avoiding. With the help of forecasting analysis, we also provide a trend of asset movements for the upcoming weeks. The analysis, as also shown by the simulation that accompanies each sheet, can be used as informational support for creating a short-term investment strategy.